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House Price Dynamics and Granger Causality: An Analysis of Taipei New Dwelling Market

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Abstract

The primary purpose of this paper is to examine dynamic causal relationships between house price and its five determinants, including total household income, short-run interest rates, stock price index, construction costs, and housing completions, in Taipei new dwelling market. Granger causality tests, variance decomposition, impulse response functions based on the vector error-correction model are utilised. All five determinants Granger cause house prices, but only house prices and stock price index have a bilateral feedback effect. The variance decomposition results suggest that disturbances originating from current house prices inflict greatest variability (66 percent of variance) to future prices. The remaining 34 percent of the variance is explained by the five determinants. On the supply side, the construction costs and housing completions together explain about 10 percent of the house price variance. On the demand side, short-run interest rates, total household income and stock price index explain about 24 percent of the variance.

Suggested Citation

  • Ming-Chi Chen & Kanak Patel, 1998. "House Price Dynamics and Granger Causality: An Analysis of Taipei New Dwelling Market," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 1(1), pages 101-126.
  • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:01:n:01:1998:p:101-126
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    Cited by:

    1. Sanjay Sehgal & Mridul Upreti & Piyush Pandey & Aakriti Bhatia, 2015. "Real Estate Investment Selection and Empirical Analysis of Property Prices: Study of Select Residential Projects in Gurgaon, India," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 18(4), pages 523-566.
    2. Gábor Vadas, 2004. "Modelling Households’ Savings and Dwellings Investment – A Portfolio Choice Approach," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 7(1), pages 31-55.
    3. Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2016. "Are house prices guided by fundamentals or speculative factors? An empirical inquiry for India," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 47-64.
    4. Bharat Barot & Zan Yang, 2004. "House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the UK. Econometric analysis for the period 1970-1998," Macroeconomics 0409022, EconWPA.
    5. Davis, E. Philip & Zhu, Haibin, 2011. "Bank lending and commercial property cycles: Some cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, February.
    6. repec:eco:journ1:2017-05-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Barot, Bharat, 2002. "Growth and Business Cycles for the Swedish Economy 1963-1999," Working Papers 79, National Institute of Economic Research.
    8. Pami Dua, 2008. "Analysis of Consumers’ Perceptions of Buying Conditions for Houses," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 335-350, November.
    9. repec:ire:issued:v:21:n:01:2018:p:71-92 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Barot, Bharat & Yang, Zan, 2002. "House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the United Kingdom: Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970-1998," Working Papers 80, National Institute of Economic Research.
    11. An-Pin Wei & Wei-Ling Huang & Chih-Yuan Yang & Ming-Chi Chen, 2013. "The role of market imperfections in the relationship between housing prices and household credit: Evidence from Taiwan," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 27(2), pages 131-143, November.
    12. Jie Zhang & Jianhua Wang & Aiyong Zhu, 2012. "The relationship between real estate investment and economic growth in China: a threshold effect," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(1), pages 123-134, February.
    13. repec:ire:issued:v:20:n:02:2017:p:127-165 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Vadas, Gábor & Kiss, Gergely, 2006. "A lakáspiac szerepe a monetáris transzmisszióban
      [The role of the housing market in monetary transmission]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 408-427.
    15. Guo, Feng & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2010. "Does "hot money" drive China's real estate and stock markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 452-466, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vector Error-correction Model; Granger Causality Test; Generalised Impulse Response Function;

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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