IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rdg/icmadp/icma-dp2003-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Drives Swap Spreads, Credit or Liquidity?

Author

Listed:
  • Ying Huang

    (Graduate Center, CUNY)

  • Salih Neftci

    (Professor, Economics Department, Graduate Center, CUNY)

  • Ira Jersey

    (Credit Suisse First, Boston, New York)

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of swap spreads. Compared with previous work done in this area, such as the seminal paper by Duffie and Singleton (1997), the paper includes daily credit spreads data in the time series framework. The issue is whether 'liquidity' or 'credit' (or both) is the main determinant of swap spreads dynamics. Our results agree with the prevailing view among swap traders that swap spreads are mainly an indicator of 'market liquidity'. However, the dynamics are influenced significantly by 'credit' over longer horizons, although credit is not the main driving force. LIBOR rate dynamics seem to play a relatively minor role in this setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Ying Huang & Salih Neftci & Ira Jersey, 2002. "What Drives Swap Spreads, Credit or Liquidity?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2003-05, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    • Handle: RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2003-05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.icmacentre.ac.uk/pdf/discussion/DP2003-05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. "An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September.
    2. Mark Grinblatt, 2001. "An Analytic Solution for Interest Rate Swap Spreads," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 113-149, September.
    3. Lang, Larry H. P. & Litzenberger, Robert H. & Luchuan Liu, Andy, 1998. "Determinants of interest rate swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(12), pages 1507-1532, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ingo Fender & Martin Scheicher, 2009. "The pricing of subprime mortgage risk in good times and bad: evidence from the ABX.HE indices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(24), pages 1925-1945.
    2. Piotr Płuciennik, 2012. "The Impact of the World Financial Crisis on the Polish Interbank Market: A Swap Spread Approach," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 269-288, December.
    3. Jaroslav Baran & Jiří Witzany, 2017. "Analysing Cross-Currency Basis Spreads," Working Papers 25, European Stability Mechanism.
    4. Scheicher, Martin & Fender, Ingo, 2009. "The pricing of subprime mortgage risk in good times and bad: evidence from the ABX.HE indices," Working Paper Series 1056, European Central Bank.
    5. Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Ravit E. Mandell, 2006. "The Market Price of Risk in Interest Rate Swaps: The Roles of Default and Liquidity Risks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 2337-2360, September.
    6. Ingo Fender & Martin Scheicher, 2008. "The ABX: how do the markets price subprime mortgage risk?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    7. Finbarr Murphy & Bernard Murphy, 2012. "A vector-autoregression analysis of credit and liquidity factor dynamics in US LIBOR and Euribor swap markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(2), pages 351-370, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chung, Hon-Lun & Chan, Wai-Sum, 2010. "Impact of credit spreads, monetary policy and convergence trading on swap spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 118-126, March.
    2. Huang, Ying & Chen, Carl R., 2007. "The effect of Fed monetary policy regimes on the US interest rate swap spreads," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 375-399.
    3. Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "On the predictability of common risk factors in the US and UK interest rate swap markets: Evidence from non-linear and linear models," Discussion Paper Series 2005_9, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Sep 2005.
    4. Cho-Hoi Hui & Lillie Lam, 2008. "What Drives Hong Kong Dollar Swap Spreads: Credit or Liquidity?," Working Papers 0810, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    5. Adam Kobor & Lishan Shi & Ivan Zelenko, 2005. "What Determines U.S. Swap Spreads?," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7272.
    6. Huang, Ying & Neftci, Salih N. & Guo, Feng, 2008. "Swap curve dynamics across markets: Case of US dollar versus HK dollar," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 79-93, February.
    7. Sven Klingler & Suresh Sundaresan, 2018. "An explanation of negative swap spreads: demand for duration from underfunded pension plans," BIS Working Papers 705, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Kenneth A. Tah, 2022. "Determinants of Interest rate swap spreads: A quantile regression approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(3), pages 522-534, July.
    9. Li, Shaoyu & Zhu, Chunhui & Shang, Yuhuang, 2023. "Hedging demand and near-zero swap spreads: Evidence from the Chinese interest rate swap market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 170-185.
    10. Ying Huang & Carl R. Chen, 2007. "The effect of Fed monetary policy regimes on the US interest rate swap spreads," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 375-399.
    11. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Finbarr Murphy & Bernard Murphy, 2012. "A vector-autoregression analysis of credit and liquidity factor dynamics in US LIBOR and Euribor swap markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(2), pages 351-370, April.
    13. Azad, A.S.M. Sohel & Batten, Jonathan A. & Fang, Victor, 2015. "What determines the yen swap spread?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-13.
    14. SOLNIK, Bruno & COLLIN-DUFRESNE, Pierre, 2000. "On the term structure of default premia in the Swap and Libor markets," HEC Research Papers Series 704, HEC Paris.
    15. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    16. Hanson, Samuel G. & Malkhozov, Aytek & Venter, Gyuri, 2024. "Demand-and-supply imbalance risk and long-term swap spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    17. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    18. Marti G. Subrahmanyam & Young Ho Eom & Jun Uno, 2000. "Credit Risk and the Pricing of Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swaps," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-069, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    19. Ann Marie Hibbert & Ivelina Pavlova & Joel Barber & Krishnan Dandapani, 2011. "Credit Spread Changes and Equity Volatility: Evidence from Daily Data," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 357-383, August.
    20. Chan, W.S. & Wong, C.S. & Chung, A.H.L., 2009. "Modelling Australian interest rate swap spreads by mixture autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic processes," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2779-2786.
    21. John Kambhu, 2004. "Trading risk and volatility in interest rate swap spreads," Staff Reports 178, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2003-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marie Pearson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bsrdguk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.