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On the predictability of common risk factors in the US and UK interest rate swap markets:Evidence from non-linear and linear models

Author

Listed:
  • Ilias Lekkos

    (Eurobank Ergasias)

  • Costas Milas

    () (Keele University, Department of Economics)

  • Theodore Panagiotidis

    (Loughborough University)

Abstract

This paper explores the ability of common risk factors to predict the dynamics of US and UK interest rate swap spreads within a linear and a non-linear framework. We reject linearity for the US and UK swap spreads in favour of a regime-switching smooth transition vector autoregressive (STVAR) model, where the switching between regimes is controlled by the slope of the US term structure of interest rates. The first regime is characterised by a "flat" term structure of US interest rates, while the alternative is characterised by an "upward" sloping US term structure. We compare the ability of the STVAR model to predict swap spreads with that of a non-linear nearest-neibours model as well as that of linear AR and VAR models. We find some evidence that the nearest-neighbours and STVAR models predict better than the linear AR and VAR models. However, the evidence is not overwhelming as it is sensitive to swap spread maturity. We also find that within the non-linear class of models, the nearest-neighbours model predicts better than the STVAR model US swap spreads in periods of increasing risk conditions and UK swap spreads in periods of decreasing risk conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "On the predictability of common risk factors in the US and UK interest rate swap markets:Evidence from non-linear and linear models," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2005/13, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
  • Handle: RePEc:kee:kerpuk:2005/13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Claudia Sanhueza & Dante Contreras & Angela Denis, 2012. "Terremoto y sus efectos sobre el bienestar: un análisis multidimensional," Working Papers 35, Facultad de Economía y Empresa, Universidad Diego Portales.
    2. Claudio Bonilla & Carlos Maquieira & Rafael Romero-Meza, 2008. "Nonlinear behaviour of emerging market bonds spreads: the Latin American case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(20), pages 2697-2702.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rate swap spreads; term structure of interest rates; regime switching; smooth transition models; nearest-neighbours; forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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