Impact of credit spreads, monetary policy and convergence trading on swap spreads
We investigate the determinants of US swap spreads based on the development of the swap market and the major events that happened between 1991 and 2006. We find that changes in swap spreads are jointly determined by the liquidity premium, interest rate level, default risk premium and the business cycle. The changes in swap spreads are positively related to liquidity premium, interest rate level and the slope of risk-free term structure. Amongst the various credit spreads, Finance AA spreads and agency spreads have the most influence on swap spreads. We also find that swap spreads changed from pro-cyclical to counter-cyclical after 1999. When the market features heavy speculative trading, such as the convergence trading activities of swap spreads, the magnitude of swap spreads is affected and their behaviour becomes uncertain.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2007.
"Forecasting interest rate swap spreads using domestic and international risk factors: evidence from linear and non-linear models,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(8), pages 601-619.
- Costas Milas & Ilias Lekkos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2006. "Forecasting interest rate swap spreads using domestic and international risk factors: Evidence from linear and non-linear models," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2006/05, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
- Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2006. "Forecasting interest rate swap spreads using domestic and international risk factors: Evidence from linear and non-linear models," Discussion Paper Series 2006_6, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Mar 2006.
- Franklin R. Edward, 1999. "Hedge Funds and the Collapse of Long-Term Capital Management," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 189-210, Spring.
- Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Ravit E. Mandell, 2006. "The Market Price of Risk in Interest Rate Swaps: The Roles of Default and Liquidity Risks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 2337-2360, September.
- Liu, Jun & Longstaff, Francis A. & Mandell, Ravit E., 2004. "The Market Price Of Risk In Interest Rate Swaps: The Roles Of Default And Liquidity Risks," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt5z42g22g, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Francis In & Victor Fang & Rob Brown, 2004. "Australian and US interest rate swap markets: comparison and linkages," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 44(1), pages 45-56.
- Mark Grinblatt, 2001. "An Analytic Solution for Interest Rate Swap Spreads," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 113-149.
- Grinblatt, Mark, 1995. "An Analytic Solution for Interest Rate Swap Spreads," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt9s13f3zx, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Mark Grinblatt, 2002. "An Analytic Solution for Interest Rate Swap Spreads," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm39, Yale School of Management.
- Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "On the Term Structure of Default Premia in the Swap and LIBOR Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 1095-1115, 06.
- John Kambhu, 2006. "Trading risk, market liquidity, and convergence trading in the interest rate swap spread," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 1-13.
- Jacobs, Kris & Karoui, Lotfi, 2009. "Conditional volatility in affine term-structure models: Evidence from Treasury and swap markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 288-318, March.
- Gregory R. Duffee, 1998. "The Relation Between Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2225-2241, December.
- Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth Kuttner, 1993. "Why Does the Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity?," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 213-254 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1991. "Why Does the Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity?," NBER Working Papers 3879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1991. "Why does the paper-bill spread predict real economic activity?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Brent W. Ambrose & Tao-Hsien Dolly King, 2002. "GSE debt and the decline in the Treasury debt market," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 812-847.
- Sun, Tong-sheng & Sundaresan, Suresh & Wang, Ching, 1993. "Interest rate swaps: An empirical investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 77-99, August.
- Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
- Feldhütter, Peter & Lando, David, 2008. "Decomposing swap spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 375-405, May.
- Dwight Jaffee, 2003. "The Interest Rate Risk of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 24(1), pages 5-29, August.
- Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
- Lang, Larry H. P. & Litzenberger, Robert H. & Luchuan Liu, Andy, 1998. "Determinants of interest rate swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(12), pages 1507-1532, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:19:y:2010:i:2:p:118-126. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.