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Asymmetric dynamics in correlations of treasury and swap markets: Evidence from the US market

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  • Toyoshima, Yuki
  • Tamakoshi, Go
  • Hamori, Shigeyuki

Abstract

Using the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (A-DCC) model developed by Cappiello et al. (2006), this paper empirically analyzes the conditional correlation between treasury and swap markets from February 9, 2006 to May 31, 2011, and makes two key contributions. First, the dynamics of the conditional correlation of only the 2-year maturity differs from those of other maturities. These patterns might be explained by the fact that a 2-year maturity is easily affected by market forecasts of monetary policy changes by the Federal Reserve Board. Second, the financial crisis dummies (ξ1) are all negative in particular with significance at the 5% level for 7 year, 10 year, and 30 year maturities. This result indicates that arbitrage transactions between treasuries and swaps have not taken place on a sufficient scale during the financial crisis period. As Ito (2010) points out, market participants have been uncertain about the direction of the monetary policies of these financial institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Toyoshima, Yuki & Tamakoshi, Go & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Asymmetric dynamics in correlations of treasury and swap markets: Evidence from the US market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 381-394.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:22:y:2012:i:2:p:381-394
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2011.12.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Takayasu Ito, 2010. "Global financial crisis and US interest rate swap spreads," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 37-43.
    2. Kuper, Gerard H. & Lestano, 2007. "Dynamic conditional correlation analysis of financial market interdependence: An application to Thailand and Indonesia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 670-684, August.
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    5. Huang, Ying & Chen, Carl R., 2007. "The effect of Fed monetary policy regimes on the US interest rate swap spreads," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 375-399.
    6. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    7. Matthew S. Yiu & Wai-Yip Alex Ho & Lu Jin, 2010. "Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Financial Spillover to Asian and Latin American Markets in Global Financial Turmoil," Working Papers 1001, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    8. Matthew Yiu & Wai-Yip Alex Ho & Daniel Choi, 2010. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion in Asian markets in global financial turmoil," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 345-354.
    9. Chung, Hon-Lun & Chan, Wai-Sum, 2010. "Impact of credit spreads, monetary policy and convergence trading on swap spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 118-126, March.
    10. Yuan-Hung Hsu Ku & Jai Jen Wang, 2008. "Estimating portfolio value-at-risk via dynamic conditional correlation MGARCH model - an empirical study on foreign exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 533-538.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Go Tamakoshi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "On the Time-varying Linkages among the London Interbank Offer Rates for Major European Currencies," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(1), pages 46-53, January.
    2. Lu Yang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "EU Accession, Financial Integration, and Contagion Effects: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of CEEC-3 Bond Markets," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 20(2), pages 179-189, October.
    3. Toyoshima, Yuki & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2013. "Asymmetric dynamics in stock market correlations: Evidence from Japan and Singapore," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 117-123.
    4. Mitra, Sovan & Date, Paresh & Mamon, Rogemar & Wang, I-Chieh, 2013. "Pricing and risk management of interest rate swaps," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 228(1), pages 102-111.
    5. El Abed, Riadh & Zardoub, Amna, 2017. "Time varying and asymmetric effect between sovereign credit market and financial market: The asymmetric DCC model," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-97, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model; Treasury market; Swap market; Financial crisis; Contagion effect;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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