Asymmetric dynamics in correlations of treasury and swap markets: Evidence from the US market
Using the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (A-DCC) model developed by Cappiello et al. (2006), this paper empirically analyzes the conditional correlation between treasury and swap markets from February 9, 2006 to May 31, 2011, and makes two key contributions. First, the dynamics of the conditional correlation of only the 2-year maturity differs from those of other maturities. These patterns might be explained by the fact that a 2-year maturity is easily affected by market forecasts of monetary policy changes by the Federal Reserve Board. Second, the financial crisis dummies (ξ1) are all negative in particular with significance at the 5% level for 7 year, 10 year, and 30 year maturities. This result indicates that arbitrage transactions between treasuries and swaps have not taken place on a sufficient scale during the financial crisis period. As Ito (2010) points out, market participants have been uncertain about the direction of the monetary policies of these financial institutions.
Volume (Year): 22 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kuper, Gerard H. & Lestano, 2007.
"Dynamic conditional correlation analysis of financial market interdependence: An application to Thailand and Indonesia,"
Journal of Asian Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 670-684, August.
- Kuper, Gerard H. & Lestano, 2006. "Dynamic conditional correlation analysis of financial market interdependence: An application to Thailand and Indonesia," CCSO Working Papers 200602, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
- Christos Savva & Denise Osborn & Len Gill, 2009. "Spillovers and correlations between US and major European stock markets: the role of the euro," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(19), pages 1595-1604.
- C S Savva & D R Osborn & L Gill, 2005. "Spillovers and Correlations between US and Major European Stock Markets: The Role of the Euro," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 64, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- C S Savva & D R Osborn & L Gill, 2005. "Spillovers and Correlations between US and Major European Stock Markets: The Role of the Euro," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0515, Economics, The University of Manchester.
- Christos S. Savva & Denise R. Osborn & Len Gill, 2005. "Spillovers and Correlations between US and Major European Stock Markets: The Role of the Euro," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0541, Economics, The University of Manchester.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
- Huang, Ying & Chen, Carl R., 2007. "The effect of Fed monetary policy regimes on the US interest rate swap spreads," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 375-399.
- Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS program to estimate various forms of DCC GARCH models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00174, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Matthew Yiu & Wai-Yip Alex Ho & Daniel Choi, 2010. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion in Asian markets in global financial turmoil," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 345-354.
- Yuan-Hung Hsu Ku & Jai Jen Wang, 2008. "Estimating portfolio value-at-risk via dynamic conditional correlation MGARCH model - an empirical study on foreign exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 533-538.
- Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
- Takayasu Ito, 2010. "Global financial crisis and US interest rate swap spreads," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 37-43.
- Matthew S. Yiu & Wai-Yip Alex Ho & Lu Jin, 2010. "Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Financial Spillover to Asian and Latin American Markets in Global Financial Turmoil," Working Papers 1001, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
- Chung, Hon-Lun & Chan, Wai-Sum, 2010. "Impact of credit spreads, monetary policy and convergence trading on swap spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 118-126, March.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
- Sheng-Yung Yang, 2005. "A DCC analysis of international stock market correlations: the role of Japan on the Asian Four Tigers," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 89-93, March.
- Duffie, Darrell & Huang, Ming, 1996. " Swap Rates and Credit Quality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 921-949, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:22:y:2012:i:2:p:381-394. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.