IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/wbk/wbpubs/7272.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

What Determines U.S. Swap Spreads?

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Kobor
  • Lishan Shi
  • Ivan Zelenko

Abstract

This paper examines the evolution of the U.S. interest swap market. The authors review the theory and past empirical studies on U.S. swap spreads, and estimate an error-correction model for maturities of 2, 5, and 10 years from 1994 to 2004. Financial theory depicts swaps as contracts indexed on London Inter-Bank Offered (LIBOR) rates, rendered almost free of counterparty default risk by mark-to-market and collateralization. Swap spreads reflect the LIBOR credit quality (credit component) and a liquidity convenience premium present in Treasury rates (liquidity component). Multifactor models that were estimated on observed swap rates highlighted the central role played by the liquidity component in explaining swap-spread dynamics over the past 15 years. The multifactor models also found some puzzling empirical results. Statistical models, on the other hand, based mainly on market analysis, faced technical difficulties arising from the presence of regime changes, from the non-stationary in swap spreads, and from the coexistence of long-term and shorter-term determinants. Against this background, the authors apply an error-correction methodology based on the concept of co-integration. They find that U.S. dollar swap spreads and the supply of U.S. Treasury bonds are co-integrated, suggesting that the Treasury supply is a key determinant on a long-term horizon. The authors estimate an error-correction model that integrates this long-term relationship with the influence of four shorter-term determinants: the AA spread, the repo rate, the difference between on-the-run and off-the-run yields, and the duration of mortgage-backed securities. The error-correction model fits observed swap spreads quite well over the sample period. The authors illustrate how the same model can be used to carry out scenario analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Kobor & Lishan Shi & Ivan Zelenko, 2005. "What Determines U.S. Swap Spreads?," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7272.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:7272
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/7272/334270rev0pub.pdf?sequence=1
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neil Cooper & Cedric Scholtes, 2001. "Government bond market valuations in an era of dwindling supply," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The changing shape of fixed income markets: a collection of studies by central bank economists, volume 5, pages 147-169 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Mark Grinblatt, 2001. "An Analytic Solution for Interest Rate Swap Spreads," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 113-149.
    3. Flannery, Mark J, 1986. " Asymmetric Information and Risky Debt Maturity Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 19-37, March.
    4. Gupta, Anurag & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2000. "An empirical examination of the convexity bias in the pricing of interest rate swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 239-279, February.
    5. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. " An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September.
    6. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    7. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    8. Litzenberger, Robert H, 1992. " Swaps: Plain and Fanciful," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 831-850, July.
    9. Marcelle Arak & Arturo Estrella & Laurie Goodman & Andrew Silver, 1988. "Interest rate swaps: an alternative explanation," Research Paper 8811, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    10. Vincent Reinhart & Brian Sack, 2002. "The changing information content of market interest rates," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 340-357 Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "On the Term Structure of Default Premia in the Swap and LIBOR Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 1095-1115, June.
    12. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    13. Titman, Sheridan, 1992. " Interest Rate Swaps and Corporate Financing Choices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1503-1516, September.
    14. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
    15. John Kambhu, 2004. "Trading risk and volatility in interest rate swap spreads," Staff Reports 178, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    17. Duffie, Darrell & Huang, Ming, 1996. " Swap Rates and Credit Quality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 921-949, July.
    18. Lang, Larry H. P. & Litzenberger, Robert H. & Luchuan Liu, Andy, 1998. "Determinants of interest rate swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(12), pages 1507-1532, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Azad, A.S.M. Sohel & Batten, Jonathan A. & Fang, Victor, 2015. "What determines the yen swap spread?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-13.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:7272. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Breineder). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.