IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/stm/wpaper/25.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Analysing Cross-Currency Basis Spreads

Author

Listed:
  • Jaroslav Baran

    (European Stability Mechanism)

  • Jiří Witzany

    (University of Economics, Prague)

Abstract

This paper investigates the drivers of cross-currency basis spreads, which were historically close to zero but have widened significantly since the start of the financial crisis. Credit and liquidity risk, as well as supply and demand have often been cited as general factors driving cross-currency basis spreads, however, these spreads may widen beyond what is normally explained by such variables. We suggest market proxies for EUR/USD basis swap spread drivers and build a multiple regression and cointegration model to explain their significance during three different historical periods of basis widening. The most important drivers of the cross-currency basis spreads appear to be short- and medium-term EU financial sector credit risk indicators, and to a slightly lesser extent, short- and medium-term US financial sector credit risk indicators. Another important driver is market volatility for the short-end basis spread, and the EUR/USD exchange rate for the medium term basis spread, and to a lesser extent, the Fed/ECB balance sheet ratio.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaroslav Baran & Jiří Witzany, 2017. "Analysing Cross-Currency Basis Spreads," Working Papers 25, European Stability Mechanism.
    • Handle: RePEc:stm:wpaper:25
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esm.europa.eu/sites/default/files/document/wp25.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaroslav Baran & Jiří Witzany, 2014. "Konstrukce výnosových křivek v pokrizovém období [Yield Curve Construction after Crisis]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 67-99.
    2. Naohiko Baba & Frank Packer & Teppei Nagano, 2008. "The spillover of money market turbulence to FX swap and cross-currency swap markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    3. Phillips, Peter C B, 1995. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1023-1078, September.
    4. Marco Bianchetti & Mattia Carlicchi, 2011. "Interest Rates After The Credit Crunch: Multiple-Curve Vanilla Derivatives and SABR," Papers 1103.2567, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2012.
    5. Baba, Naohiko & Packer, Frank, 2009. "Interpreting deviations from covered interest parity during the financial market turmoil of 2007-08," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1953-1962, November.
    6. Erik Schlogl & Yang Chang, 2012. "Carry Trade and Liquidity Risk: Evidence from Forward and Cross-Currency Swap Markets," Research Paper Series 310, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. Ying Huang & Salih Neftci & Ira Jersey, 2002. "What Drives Swap Spreads, Credit or Liquidity?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2003-05, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    8. Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H. & Hüfner, Felix P., 2004. "Expected budget deficits and interest rate swap spreads - Evidence for France, Germany and Italy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,40, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Masatoshi Ando, 2012. "Recent Developments in U.S. Dollar Funding Costs through FX Swaps," Bank of Japan Review Series 12-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2019. "Eurozone Real Output and Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Can Stronger Real Output Lessen the Deviations?," MPRA Paper 92305, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Feb 2019.
    2. Oyakhilome Ibhagui, 2021. "Inflation differential as a driver of cross-currency basis swap spreads," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 510-536, April.
    3. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2018. "The Monetary Model of CIP Deviations," MPRA Paper 89641, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "Stock market and deviations from covered interest parity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Sevgi Coşkun & Oyakhilome Ibhagui, 2022. "Technology shocks and covered interest parity deviations in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1337-1374, September.
    6. Heidorn, Thomas & Mamadalizoda, Nekruz, 2019. "Investigating the cross currency basis in EURUSD and EURGBP," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 227, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    7. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2018. "Interrelations among cross-currency basis swap spreads: Pre-and post-crisis analysis," MPRA Paper 89024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Angrick, Stefan & Nemoto, Naoko, 2018. "Breaking Par: Short-Term Determinants of Yen-Dollar Swap Deviations," ADBI Working Papers 859, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    9. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2019. "Wider Covered Interest Parity Deviations and Lower Stock Returns: Evidence from the Eurozone," MPRA Paper 92363, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dušan Staniek, . "Cross-Currency Basis Spread and Its Impact on Corporate Lending Rates in the Czech Banking Sector," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 0.
    2. Jaroslav Baran & Jiří Witzany, 2014. "Konstrukce výnosových křivek v pokrizovém období [Yield Curve Construction after Crisis]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 67-99.
    3. Cerutti, Eugenio M. & Obstfeld, Maurice & Zhou, Haonan, 2021. "Covered interest parity deviations: Macrofinancial determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Dagfinn Rime & Andreas Schrimpf & Olav Syrstad, 2017. "Segmented money markets and covered interest parity arbitrage," BIS Working Papers 651, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. De Socio, Antonio, 2013. "The interbank market after the financial turmoil: Squeezing liquidity in a “lemons market” or asking liquidity “on tap”," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1340-1358.
    6. Ji, Philip Inyeob, 2012. "Time-varying financial stress linkages: Evidence from the LIBOR-OIS spreads," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 647-657.
    7. Angrick, Stefan & Nemoto, Naoko, 2018. "Breaking Par: Short-Term Determinants of Yen-Dollar Swap Deviations," ADBI Working Papers 859, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    8. Bank for International Settlements, 2015. "Currency carry trades in Latin America," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 81.
    9. Maurice Obstfeld, 2009. "Lenders of Last Resort in a Globalized World," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-18, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    10. Charles Engel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2023. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2395-2438.
    11. Dagfinn Rime & Andreas Schrimpf & Olav Syrstad, 2022. "Covered Interest Parity Arbitrage," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(11), pages 5185-5227.
    12. Alfred Wong & David Leung & Calvin Ng, 2016. "Risk-adjusted Covered Interest Parity: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 162016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    13. Mr. Mark R. Stone & W. Christopher Walker & Yosuke Yasui, 2009. "From Lombard Street to Avenida Paulista: Foreign Exchange Liquidity Easing in Brazil in Response to the Global Shock of 2008–09," IMF Working Papers 2009/259, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2020. "Covered interest parity deviations in standard monetary models," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    15. Jeong, Daehee, 2010. "Margin and Funding Liquidity: An Empirical Analysis on the Covered Interest Parity in Korea," KDI Policy Studies 2010-01, Korea Development Institute (KDI).
    16. Bazán, Walter & Ortiz, Marco & Terrones, Marco & Winkelried, Diego, 2023. "CIP deviations: The role of U.S. banks’ liquidity and regulations," MPRA Paper 118600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Naohiko Baba & Robert N McCauley & Srichander Ramaswamy, 2009. "US dollar money market funds and non-US banks," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    18. Jinzhao Chen, 2012. "Crisis, Capital Controls and Covered Interest Parity: Evidence from China in Transformation," PSE Working Papers halshs-00660654, HAL.
    19. Dr. Daniel Kohler & Dr. Benjamin Müller, 2019. "Covered interest rate parity, relative funding liquidity and cross-currency repos," Working Papers 2019-05, Swiss National Bank.
    20. Baba, Naohiko & Sakurai, Yuji, 2011. "When and how US dollar shortages evolved into the full crisis? Evidence from the cross-currency swap market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1450-1463, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cross-currency swap; basis spread; overnight indexed swap; cointegration; arbitrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:stm:wpaper:25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Karol SISKIND (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/efseulu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.