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Carry Trade and Liquidity Risk: Evidence from Forward and Cross-Currency Swap Markets

This study empirically examines the effect of foreign exchange (FX) market liquidity risk and volatility on the excess returns of currency carry trades. In contrast to the existent literature, we construct an alternative proxy of liquidity risk - violations of no arbitrage bounds in the forward and currency swap markets. We also use volatility smile data to capture FX-market specific volatility. The sample data cover periods both before and after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Both proxies are significant in explaining the abnormal returns of carry trades, particularly after the GFC. Our findings provide substantial evidence that uncovered interest parity (UIP) puzzle can be resolved after controlling for liquidity risk and market volatility.

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File URL: http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/research/research_papers/rp310.pdf
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Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 310.

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Length: 35
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:310
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Web page: http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/

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  1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
  2. Baba, Naohiko & Packer, Frank, 2009. "From turmoil to crisis: Dislocations in the FX swap market before and after the failure of Lehman Brothers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1350-1374, December.
  3. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
  4. Mitchell, Mark & Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Pulvino, Todd, 2007. "Slow Moving Capital," CEPR Discussion Papers 6117, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Kleshchelski, Isaac & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2008. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6873, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Safe Haven Currencies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 385-407.
  7. Christiansen, Charlotte & Ranaldo, Angelo & Söderlind, Paul, 2011. "The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(04), pages 1107-1125, September.
  8. Craig Burnside, 2007. "The Forward Premium is Still a Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 13129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Naohiko Baba & Frank Packer, 2009. "From turmoil to crisis: dislocations in the FX swap market before and after the failure of Lehman Brothers," BIS Working Papers 285, Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Andrei Shleifer ad Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1725, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  12. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2009. "The US dollar shortage in global banking," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  13. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2002. "Bubbles and crashes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24905, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  14. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
  15. Ingo Fender & Patrick McGuire, 2010. "European banks' US dollar funding pressures," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
  16. Naohiko Baba & Frank Packer & Teppei Nagano, 2008. "The spillover of money market turbulence to FX swap and cross-currency swap markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
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