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Do the carry trades respond to geopolitical risks? Evidence from BRICS countries

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  • Cepni, Oguzhan
  • Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan
  • Guney, Ibrahim Ethem
  • Yilmaz, Muhammed Hasan

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the implications of geopolitical risks on the return and volatility of carry trade transactions in the context of BRICS countries for the period 2006–2020. Fixed effects regressions considering the sample countries as a single portfolio document that geopolitical risks are correlated with volatility, while the results are inconclusive for returns. The non-parametric time-varying coefficients panel data estimations further indicate that the effect of geopolitical risks on carry trade volatility is amplified during the Global Financial Crisis and the post-2016 episode. Moving to the disaggregated data, the time-varying robust Granger causality test of Rossi and Wang (2019) show that geopolitical risks have a significant in-sample predictive power for both carry trade return and volatility during a myriad of sub-periods, which can not be captured by standard constant parameter techniques in the presence of instabilities. Overall, our empirical results suggest that the exposure to geopolitical risks should be taken into account by global investors for risk diversification purposes when entering carry trade positions in BRICS countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Cepni, Oguzhan & Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan & Guney, Ibrahim Ethem & Yilmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2023. "Do the carry trades respond to geopolitical risks? Evidence from BRICS countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:47:y:2023:i:2:s0939362522000620
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2022.101000
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    RICS countries; Carry trade; Geopolitical risks; Non-parametric time-varying coefficients panel regression; Time-varying Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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