IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/100948.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation Differential as a Driver of Cross-currency Basis Swap Spreads

Author

Listed:
  • Ibhagui, Oyakhilome

Abstract

Over the last decade, the foreign exchange derivatives market has witnessed a collapse of covered interest parity (CIP). Not only does this collapse give rise to large deviations from CIP, it has unlocked a stream of exploitable arbitrage opportunities across currencies. In this paper, we introduce two new factors - inflation differential and relative economic performance - as potential drivers of deviations from CIP. Employing data on G10 cross-currency basis swap spreads viz a viz the U.S. dollar, we document a striking new evidence that higher inflation differential and incremental improvement in relative economic performance drive the basis wider, and hence arbitrage profits higher for U.S. dollar investors, in the post crisis period. Our main empirical results in general are robust to an extended number of controls, variations in sampling frequency, and consideration of alternative specifications, but the additional explanatory power is low.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2020. "Inflation Differential as a Driver of Cross-currency Basis Swap Spreads," MPRA Paper 100948, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:100948
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/100948/1/MPRA_paper_100948.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cho‐Hoi Hui & Hans Genberg & Tsz‐Kin Chung, 2011. "Funding liquidity risk and deviations from interest‐rate parity during the financial crisis of 2007–2009," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 307-323, October.
    2. Boons, Martijn & Duarte, Fernando & de Roon, Frans & Szymanowska, Marta, 2020. "Time-varying inflation risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 444-470.
    3. Alfred Wong & David Leung & Calvin Ng, 2016. "Risk-adjusted Covered Interest Parity: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 162016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    4. Dagfinn Rime & Andreas Schrimpf & Olav Syrstad, 2022. "Covered Interest Parity Arbitrage," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(11), pages 5185-5227.
    5. Liao, Gordon Y., 2020. "Credit migration and covered interest rate parity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 504-525.
    6. Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2171-2212, December.
    7. Baba, Naohiko & Packer, Frank, 2009. "Interpreting deviations from covered interest parity during the financial market turmoil of 2007-08," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1953-1962, November.
    8. Alfred Wong & Jiayue Zhang, 2018. "Breakdown of covered interest parity: mystery or myth?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The price, real and financial effects of exchange rates, volume 96, pages 57-78, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. repec:ces:ifodic:v:15:y:2017:i:1:p:19307486 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2019. "Eurozone Real Output and Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Can Stronger Real Output Lessen the Deviations?," MPRA Paper 92305, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Feb 2019.
    11. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    12. Jaroslav Baran & Jiří Witzany, 2017. "Analysing Cross-Currency Basis Spreads," Working Papers 25, European Stability Mechanism.
    13. Victoria Ivashina & David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 2015. "Dollar Funding and the Lending Behavior of Global Banks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1241-1281.
    14. Stephan Kohns, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(1), pages 17-18, 04.
    15. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2018:i:182 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2019. "Wider Covered Interest Parity Deviations and Lower Stock Returns: Evidence from the Eurozone," MPRA Paper 92363, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2018. "The Monetary Model of CIP Deviations," MPRA Paper 89641, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Stephan Kohns, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(01), pages 17-18, April.
    19. Fumihiko Arai & Yoshibumi Makabe & Yasunori Okawara & Teppei Nagano, 2016. "Recent Trends in Cross-currency Basis," Bank of Japan Review Series 16-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "Real Output and Cross-Currency Basis Swap Spreads: Evidence from the Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "Stock market and deviations from covered interest parity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Cerutti, Eugenio M. & Obstfeld, Maurice & Zhou, Haonan, 2021. "Covered interest parity deviations: Macrofinancial determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    3. Patrick Augustin & Mikhail Chernov & Lukas Schmid & Dongho Song, 2024. "The Term Structure of Covered Interest Rate Parity Violations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 2077-2114, June.
    4. Gino Cenedese & Pasquale Della Corte & Tianyu Wang, 2021. "Currency Mispricing and Dealer Balance Sheets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2763-2803, December.
    5. Chernov, Mikhail & Augustin, Patrick & Schmid, Lukas & Song, Dongho, 2020. "The term structure of CIP violations," CEPR Discussion Papers 14774, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Bazán, Walter & Ortiz, Marco & Terrones, Marco & Winkelried, Diego, 2023. "CIP deviations: The role of U.S. banks’ liquidity and regulations," MPRA Paper 118600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2019. "Wider Covered Interest Parity Deviations and Lower Stock Returns: Evidence from the Eurozone," MPRA Paper 92363, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Syrstad, Olav & Viswanath-Natraj, Ganesh, 2022. "Price-setting in the foreign exchange swap market: Evidence from order flow," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 119-142.
    9. Dagfinn Rime & Andreas Schrimpf & Olav Syrstad, 2017. "Segmented money markets and covered interest parity arbitrage," BIS Working Papers 651, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Angrick, Stefan & Nemoto, Naoko, 2018. "Breaking Par: Short-Term Determinants of Yen-Dollar Swap Deviations," ADBI Working Papers 859, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    11. Heidorn, Thomas & Mamadalizoda, Nekruz, 2019. "Investigating the cross currency basis in EURUSD and EURGBP," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 227, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    12. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," Working Papers 786, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    13. Kenny S, Victoria, 2019. "Effects of Human Capital Investment on Unemployment Volatility in Nigeria (1981-2015)," MPRA Paper 93295, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Victoria S, Kenny, 2019. "Effect of Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 92873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kenny S, Victoria, 2019. "Macroeconomic Performance Indicators and Exchange Rate Misalignment in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 93292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Saleem Bahaj & Ricardo Reis, 2022. "Central Bank Swap Lines: Evidence on the Effects of the Lender of Last Resort," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 1654-1693.
    17. Olav Syrstad & Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj, 2020. "Price-setting in the foreign exchange swap market: Evidence from order flow," Working Paper 2020/16, Norges Bank.
    18. Kenny S, Victoria, 2019. "A causal relationship between unemployment and economic growth," MPRA Paper 93133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Alfred Wong & Jiayue Zhang, 2018. "Breakdown of covered interest parity: mystery or myth?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The price, real and financial effects of exchange rates, volume 96, pages 57-78, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2018. "The Monetary Model of CIP Deviations," MPRA Paper 89641, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cross-currency basis; inflation differential; relative economic performance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:100948. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.