IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/fsfmwp/227.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investigating the cross currency basis in EURUSD and EURGBP

Author

Listed:
  • Heidorn, Thomas
  • Mamadalizoda, Nekruz

Abstract

The fundamental premise upon which the pricing of major FX derivatives rests is the Covered Interest Parity (CIP), and a violation is seen as a reflection of potential capital market inefficiencies. CIP postulates that FX forward prices simply reflect the interest rate differential between the two currencies. This has been the case before the global financial crisis. During the 2008 financial and 2011 European debt crises, market prices deviated significantly from the theoretical CIP-implied prices, and the deviations persist at noticeable levels until present. This paper documents and analyzes the pronounced nature of the EURUSD and EURGBP CIP violations from 2007 to 2019. We explain the basis in terms of five driving factors: credit risk differential, funding liquidity differences, measurement error, hedging demand imbalance, and new constraints to arbitrage. Furthermore, we carry out a term structure analysis, showing the varying dynamics of CIP violations across maturities and over time. Lastly, we test a statistical approach to adjust the interest rate differential formula bringing the theoretical prices closer to market (i.e., reducing CIP deviation).

Suggested Citation

  • Heidorn, Thomas & Mamadalizoda, Nekruz, 2019. "Investigating the cross currency basis in EURUSD and EURGBP," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 227, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fsfmwp:227
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/206543/1/1680836471.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaroslav Baran & Jiří Witzany, 2017. "Analysing Cross-Currency Basis Spreads," Working Papers 25, European Stability Mechanism.
    2. Naohiko Baba & Frank Packer & Teppei Nagano, 2008. "The spillover of money market turbulence to FX swap and cross-currency swap markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    3. Aliber, Robert Z, 1973. "The Interest Rate Parity Theorem: A Reinterpretation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1451-1459, Nov.-Dec..
    4. Dagfinn Rime & Andreas Schrimpf & Olav Syrstad, 2017. "Segmented money markets and covered interest parity arbitrage," BIS Working Papers 651, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. A. Leonhardt & A. W. Rathgeber & J. Stadler & S. Stöckl, 2015. "Pricing fx forwards in OTC markets - new evidence for the pricing mechanism when faced with counterparty risk," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(27), pages 2860-2877, June.
    6. Claudio Borio & Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2016. "Covered interest parity lost: understanding the cross-currency basis," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    7. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-338, April.
    8. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-253, December.
    9. Wenxin Du & Alexander Tepper & Adrien Verdelhan, 2018. "Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 915-957, June.
    10. Choi, Hanbok & Eom, Young Ho & Jang, Woon Wook & Kim, Don H., 2017. "Covered interest parity deviation and counterparty default risk: U.S. Dollar/Korean Won FX swap market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 47-63.
    11. Liao, Gordon Y., 2020. "Credit migration and covered interest rate parity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 504-525.
    12. A. Leonhardt & Andreas Rathgeber & Johannes Stadler & Stefan StÖckl, 2015. "Pricing fx forwards in OTC markets – new evidence for the pricing mechanism when faced with counterparty risk," Post-Print hal-01507956, HAL.
    13. Baba, Naohiko & Packer, Frank, 2009. "Interpreting deviations from covered interest parity during the financial market turmoil of 2007-08," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1953-1962, November.
    14. Dooley, Michael P & Isard, Peter, 1980. "Capital Controls, Political Risk, and Deviations from Interest-Rate Parity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 370-384, April.
    15. Alfred Wong & Jiayue Zhang, 2018. "Breakdown of covered interest parity: mystery or myth?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The price, real and financial effects of exchange rates, volume 96, pages 57-78, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. A. Leonhardt & Andreas W. Rathgeber & J. Stadler & Stefan Stöckl, 2015. "Pricing fx Forwards in OTC Markets," Post-Print hal-01371713, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patrick Augustin & Mikhail Chernov & Lukas Schmid & Dongho Song, 2020. "The Term Structure of Covered Interest Rate Parity Violations," NBER Working Papers 27231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gino Cenedese & Pasquale Della Corte & Tianyu Wang, 2021. "Currency Mispricing and Dealer Balance Sheets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2763-2803, December.
    3. Chernov, Mikhail & Augustin, Patrick & Schmid, Lukas & Song, Dongho, 2020. "The term structure of CIP violations," CEPR Discussion Papers 14774, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Vladyslav Sushko & Claudio Borio & Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2016. "The failure of covered interest parity: FX hedging demand and costly balance sheets," BIS Working Papers 590, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2020. "Covered interest parity deviations in standard monetary models," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    6. Cerutti, Eugenio M. & Obstfeld, Maurice & Zhou, Haonan, 2021. "Covered interest parity deviations: Macrofinancial determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Hattori, Takahiro, 2022. "Does the swap-covered interest parity still hold in long-term capital markets after the financial crisis? Evidence from cross-currency basis swaps," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 224-240.
    8. Angrick, Stefan & Nemoto, Naoko, 2018. "Breaking Par: Short-Term Determinants of Yen-Dollar Swap Deviations," ADBI Working Papers 859, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    9. Alfred Wong & David Leung & Calvin Ng, 2016. "Risk-adjusted Covered Interest Parity: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 162016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    10. David-Pur, Lior & Galil, Koresh & Rosenboim, Mosi & Shapir, Offer Moshe, 2023. "Cross-currency basis swap spreads and corporate dollar funding," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    11. Choi, Yoonho & Choi, E. Kwan, 2022. "Why exchange rate pass-through matters in forward exchange markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    12. Dr. Daniel Kohler & Dr. Benjamin Müller, 2019. "Covered interest rate parity, relative funding liquidity and cross-currency repos," Working Papers 2019-05, Swiss National Bank.
    13. Alfred Wong & David Leung & Calvin Ng, 2016. "How do housing purchase limits affect firm default risks in Mainland China?," Working Papers 172016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    14. Syrstad, Olav & Viswanath-Natraj, Ganesh, 2022. "Price-setting in the foreign exchange swap market: Evidence from order flow," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 119-142.
    15. Bilson, Chris & Brailsford, Tim & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran, 2022. "Covered interest rate parity deviations in the Asia-Pacific," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    16. Dagfinn Rime & Andreas Schrimpf & Olav Syrstad, 2017. "Segmented money markets and covered interest parity arbitrage," BIS Working Papers 651, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Geyikçi, Utku Bora & Özyıldırım, Süheyla, 2023. "Deviations from covered interest parity in the emerging markets after the global financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    18. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "Stock market and deviations from covered interest parity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. Sevgi Coşkun & Oyakhilome Ibhagui, 2022. "Technology shocks and covered interest parity deviations in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1337-1374, September.
    20. Olav Syrstad & Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj, 2020. "Price-setting in the foreign exchange swap market: Evidence from order flow," Working Paper 2020/16, Norges Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cross-currency basis; covered interest parity; CIP deviation; EURUSD basis; EURGBP basis; FX swaps; FX forwards; cross-currency basis swaps;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fsfmwp:227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hfbfide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.