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The failure of covered interest parity: FX hedging demand and costly balance sheets

Author

Listed:
  • Vladyslav Sushko
  • Claudio Borio
  • Robert Neil McCauley
  • Patrick McGuire

Abstract

The failure of covered interest parity (CIP), or, equivalently, the persistence of the cross currency basis, in tranquil markets has presented a puzzle. Focusing on the basis against the US dollar (USD), we show that the CIP deviations that are not due to transaction costs or bank credit risk can be explained by the demand to hedge USD forward. Fluctuations in FX hedging demand matter because committing the balance sheet to arbitrage is costly. With limits to arbitrage, CIP arbitrageurs charge a premium in the forward markets for taking the other side of FX hedgers' demand. We find that measures of FX hedging demand, combined with proxies for the risks associated with CIP arbitrage, improve the explanatory power of standard regressions.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladyslav Sushko & Claudio Borio & Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2016. "The failure of covered interest parity: FX hedging demand and costly balance sheets," BIS Working Papers 590, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:590
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-11-12 13:07:42
    2. Central Bank to the World: Supplying Dollars in the COVID Crisis
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2020-05-03 17:16:37

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Lingxia & Lee, Dong Wook, 2019. "Dollar-weighted return on aggregate corporate sector: How is it distributed across countries?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Stenfors, Alexis, 2018. "Bid-ask spread determination in the FX swap market: Competition, collusion or a convention?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 78-97.
    3. Takahiro Hattori, 2017. "Does swap-covered interest parity hold in long-term capital markets after the financial crisis?," Discussion papers ron293, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    4. Luca Dedola & Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Gräb & Arnaud Mehl, 2018. "Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    5. Josef Arlt & Martin Mandel, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis of Relationships between the Forward Exchange Rates and Present and Future Spot Exchange Rates Example of CZK/USD and CZK/EUR," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(3), pages 199-220, June.
    6. Alexis Stenfors, 2019. "The Covered Interest Parity Puzzle and the Evolution of the Japan Premium," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 417-424, April.
    7. A. Berthou & G. Horny & J-S. Mésonnier, 2018. "Dollar Funding and Firm-Level Exports," Working papers 666, Banque de France.
    8. David R. Haab & Thomas Nitschka, 2020. "Carry trade and forward premium puzzle from the perspective of a safe‐haven currency," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 376-394, May.
    9. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2018. "The Monetary Model of CIP Deviations," MPRA Paper 89641, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Andrea Mantovi, 2018. "The monetary dimension of arbitrage. A brief note," Working Paper series 18-27, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Oct 2018.
    11. Stijn Claessens, 2019. "Fragmentation in global financial markets: good or bad for financial stability?," BIS Working Papers 815, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Michael Brei & Claudio Borio, 2019. "Bank intermediation activity in a low interest rate environment," BIS Working Papers 807, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Belinda Cheung & Sebastien Printant, 2019. "Australian Money Market Divergence: Arbitrage Opportunity or Illusion?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2019-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    14. Daniel Kohler & Benjamin Müller, 2019. "Covered interest rate parity, relative funding liquidity and cross-currency repos," Working Papers 2019-05, Swiss National Bank.
    15. Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer & Alexis Stenfors, 2019. "From CIP-Deviations to a Market for Risk Premia: A Dynamic Investigation of Cross-Currency Basis Swaps," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2019-05, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    16. David R. Haab & Thomas Nitschka, 2020. "Carry trade and forward premium puzzle from the perspective of a safe‐haven currency," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 376-394, May.
    17. Angelo Ranaldo & Fabricius Somogyi, 2018. "Asymmetric Information Risk in FX Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1820, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Apr 2020.
    18. Josef Arlt & Martin Mandel, 2019. "Determinanty Forwardového Kurzu A Role Rizikových Prémií (Příklad Měnových Párů Czk/Eur A Czk/Usd)
      [Determinants of Forward Exchange Rate and the Role of Risk Premiums (Case of CZK/EUR and CZK/USD
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2019(5), pages 476-489.

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