IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v110y2022ics0264999322000414.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Why exchange rate pass-through matters in forward exchange markets

Author

Listed:
  • Choi, Yoonho
  • Choi, E. Kwan

Abstract

Persistent deviations from a covered interest rate parity (CIRP) have been observed between the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) from January 2002 to August 2020. This study argues that the CIRP does not hold because even if income from domestic and foreign investments is equalized, foreign investment's utility could be higher than that of domestic investment depending on the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into import price. Theoretically, the deviations of observed forward exchange rates from CIRP conditions are attributed to changes in importable goods prices and ERPT. A change in net capital flow affects import price volatilities and deviations from the CIRP. Therefore, the forward exchange rate depends not only on the interest rate differential between countries but also on ERPT into the import price. Using a logarithmic utility function, this study derives a utility-equalizing forward rate (UEFR). An increase in net capital outflow and the ERPT into the import price reduces the UEFR. Our empirical evidence shows that from December 2011 to June 2020, the UEFR estimates trace the actual US−UK forward exchange rates better than CIRP.

Suggested Citation

  • Choi, Yoonho & Choi, E. Kwan, 2022. "Why exchange rate pass-through matters in forward exchange markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:110:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322000414
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105795
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999322000414
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105795?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Niall Coffey & Warren B. Hrung & Asani Sarkar, 2009. "Capital constraints, counterparty risk, and deviations from covered interest rate parity," Staff Reports 393, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Fidora, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Thimann, Christian, 2007. "Home bias in global bond and equity markets: The role of real exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 631-655, June.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Binici, Mahir, 2016. "Exchange market pressure in OECD and emerging economies: Domestic vs. external factors and capital flows in the old and new normal," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 65-87.
    4. Combes, Jean-Louis & Kinda, Tidiane & Plane, Patrick, 2012. "Capital flows, exchange rate flexibility, and the real exchange rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1034-1043.
    5. Vladyslav Sushko & Claudio Borio & Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2016. "The failure of covered interest parity: FX hedging demand and costly balance sheets," BIS Working Papers 590, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Naohiko Baba & Frank Packer & Teppei Nagano, 2008. "The spillover of money market turbulence to FX swap and cross-currency swap markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    7. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    8. Victoria Ivashina & David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 2015. "Dollar Funding and the Lending Behavior of Global Banks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1241-1281.
    9. Dagfinn Rime & Andreas Schrimpf & Olav Syrstad, 2017. "Segmented money markets and covered interest parity arbitrage," BIS Working Papers 651, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Andrew Lilley & Matteo Maggiori & Brent Neiman & Jesse Schreger, 2019. "Exchange Rate Reconnect," NBER Working Papers 26046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Chen, Meng-Wei & Lu, Cuicui & Tian, Yuan, 2021. "Export price and quality adjustment: The role of financial stress and exchange rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 336-345.
    12. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2012. "The Dollar Shortage in Global Banking and the International Policy Response," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 155-178, June.
    13. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Menla Ali, Faek & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2017. "International portfolio flows and exchange rate volatility in emerging Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-15.
    14. Claudio Borio & Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2016. "Covered interest parity lost: understanding the cross-currency basis," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    15. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-253, December.
    16. Skinner, Frank S. & Mason, Andrew, 2011. "Covered interest rate parity in emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 355-363.
    17. Stefan Avdjiev & Wenxin Du & Cathérine Koch & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "The Dollar, Bank Leverage, and Deviations from Covered Interest Parity," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 193-208, September.
    18. Stockman, Alan C. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1987. "Capital flows, investment, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 171-201, March.
    19. Jongwanich, Juthathip & Kohpaiboon, Archanun, 2013. "Capital flows and real exchange rates in emerging Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 138-146.
    20. Linda S. Goldberg & Craig Kennedy & Jason Miu, 2011. "Central bank dollar swap lines and overseas dollar funding costs," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(May), pages 3-20.
    21. Wenxin Du & Alexander Tepper & Adrien Verdelhan, 2018. "Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 915-957, June.
    22. Filippou, Ilias & Gozluklu, Arie E. & Taylor, Mark P., 2018. "Global Political Risk and Currency Momentum," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(5), pages 2227-2259, October.
    23. Matthieu Bussiere, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Trade Prices: The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 731-758, October.
    24. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    25. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    26. Liao, Gordon Y., 2020. "Credit migration and covered interest rate parity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 504-525.
    27. Choi, Yoonho & Choi, E. Kwan, 2018. "Unemployment and optimal exchange rate in an open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 82-90.
    28. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 273-317.
    29. Yoon, Jong Cheol & Min, Dai Hong & Jei, Sang Young, 2020. "Purchasing power parity vs. uncovered interest rate parity for NAFTA countries: The value of incorporating time-varying parameter model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 494-500.
    30. Du, Wenxin & Im, Joanne & Schreger, Jesse, 2018. "The U.S. Treasury Premium," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 167-181.
    31. Naohiko Baba & Robert N McCauley & Srichander Ramaswamy, 2009. "US dollar money market funds and non-US banks," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    32. Kabundi, Alain & Mlachila, Montfort, 2019. "The role of monetary policy credibility in explaining the decline in exchange rate pass-through in South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 173-185.
    33. Pennings, Steven, 2017. "Pass-through of competitors' exchange rates to US import and producer prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 41-56.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2020. "Covered interest parity deviations in standard monetary models," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    2. Patrick Augustin & Mikhail Chernov & Lukas Schmid & Dongho Song, 2020. "The Term Structure of Covered Interest Rate Parity Violations," NBER Working Papers 27231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Cerutti, Eugenio M. & Obstfeld, Maurice & Zhou, Haonan, 2021. "Covered interest parity deviations: Macrofinancial determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Liao, Gordon Y., 2020. "Credit migration and covered interest rate parity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 504-525.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Hattori, Takahiro, 2022. "Does the swap-covered interest parity still hold in long-term capital markets after the financial crisis? Evidence from cross-currency basis swaps," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 224-240.
    7. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    8. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2020. "From CIP-deviations to a market for risk premia: A dynamic investigation of cross-currency basis swaps," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    9. Dagfinn Rime & Andreas Schrimpf & Olav Syrstad, 2017. "Segmented money markets and covered interest parity arbitrage," BIS Working Papers 651, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2018. "The Monetary Model of CIP Deviations," MPRA Paper 89641, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Dr. Daniel Kohler & Dr. Benjamin Müller, 2019. "Covered interest rate parity, relative funding liquidity and cross-currency repos," Working Papers 2019-05, Swiss National Bank.
    12. Gino Cenedese & Pasquale Della Corte & Tianyu Wang, 2021. "Currency Mispricing and Dealer Balance Sheets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2763-2803, December.
    13. Gordon Y. Liao & Tony Zhang, 2020. "The Hedging Channel of Exchange Rate Determination," International Finance Discussion Papers 1283, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Chernov, Mikhail & Augustin, Patrick & Schmid, Lukas & Song, Dongho, 2020. "The term structure of CIP violations," CEPR Discussion Papers 14774, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Gee Hee Hong & Anne Oeking & Kenneth H. Kang & Changyong Rhee, 2021. "What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 361-394, April.
    16. Syrstad, Olav & Viswanath-Natraj, Ganesh, 2022. "Price-setting in the foreign exchange swap market: Evidence from order flow," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 119-142.
    17. Robe, Michel A., 2022. "The dollar’s ”Convenience Yield”," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    18. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Ehlers, Torsten & Eren, Egemen, 2022. "Global banks, dollar funding, and regulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    19. Takahiro Hattori, 2017. "Does swap-covered interest parity hold in long-term capital markets after the financial crisis?," Discussion papers ron293, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    20. William A. Allen & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & William Nelson, 2017. "Central bank swap lines and CIP deviations," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 394-402, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covered interest rate parity; Utility-equalizing forward rate; Exchange rate pass-through;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:110:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322000414. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.