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Global Political Risk and Currency Momentum

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  • Filippou, Ilias
  • Gozluklu, Arie E.
  • Taylor, Mark P.

Abstract

Using a measure of political risk, relative to the United States, that captures unexpected political conditions, we show that political risk is priced in the cross section of currency momentum and contains information beyond other risk factors. Our results are robust after controlling for transaction costs, reversals, and alternative limits to arbitrage. The global political environment affects the profitability of the momentum strategy in the foreign exchange market; investors following such strategies are compensated for the exposure to the global political risk of those currencies they hold, that is, the past winners, and exploit the lower returns of loser portfolios. The risk compensation is mainly justified by the different exposures of foreign currencies in the momentum portfolio to U.S. political shocks, which is the main component of global political risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Filippou, Ilias & Gozluklu, Arie E. & Taylor, Mark P., 2018. "Global Political Risk and Currency Momentum," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(5), pages 2227-2259, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:53:y:2018:i:05:p:2227-2259_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Filippou, Ilias & Taylor, Mark P., 2023. "Forward-Looking Policy Rules and Currency Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 449-483, February.
    2. Stefan Reitz & Dennis Umlandt, 2019. "Foreign Exchange Dealer Asset Pricing," Working Paper Series 2019-08, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
    3. Feng, Shu & Fu, Liang & Ho, Chun-Yu & Alex Ho, Wai-Yip, 2023. "Political stability and credibility of currency board," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Olga Dodd & Adrian Fernández-Pérez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2024. "Currency and commodity return relationship under extreme geopolitical risks: evidence from the invasion of Ukraine," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 46-55, January.
    5. Filippou, Ilias & Taylor, Mark P., 2021. "Pricing ethics in the foreign exchange market: Environmental, Social and Governance ratings and currency premia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 66-77.
    6. Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Xu, Qi, 2021. "The real effects of exchange rate risk on corporate investment: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. Eriksen, Jonas N., 2019. "Cross-sectional return dispersion and currency momentum," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 91-108.
    8. Shuyu Zhang & Dunli Zhang & Jianming Zheng & Walter Aerts, 2021. "Does policy uncertainty of the blockchain dampen ICO markets?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(S1), pages 1625-1637, April.
    9. Choi, Yoonho & Choi, E. Kwan, 2022. "Why exchange rate pass-through matters in forward exchange markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Fan, Zhenzhen & Londono, Juan M. & Xiao, Xiao, 2022. "Equity tail risk and currency risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 484-503.
    11. Merkle, Christoph & Sextroh, Christoph J., 2021. "Value and momentum from investors’ perspective: Evidence from professionals’ risk-ratings," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 159-178.
    12. Liu, Yiye & Han, Liyan & Wu, You & Yin, Libo, 2022. "Do terrorist attacks matter for currency excess returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    13. Wouassom, Alain & Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur & Tsitsianis, Nicholas, 2022. "Global momentum: The optimal trading approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    14. Zhenzhen Fan & Juan M. Londono & Xiao Xiao, 2019. "US Equity Tail Risk and Currency Risk Premia," International Finance Discussion Papers 1253, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Zhang, Shaojun, 2022. "Dissecting currency momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 154-173.
    16. Kazuki Amagai & Tomoya Suzuki, 2023. "Long-Term Modeling of Financial Machine Learning for Active Portfolio Management," Papers 2301.12346, arXiv.org.
    17. Pedro Barroso & Jurij-Andrei Reichenecker & Marco J. Menichetti, 2022. "Hedging with an Edge: Parametric Currency Overlay," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 669-689, January.
    18. Lu Yang & Lei Yang & Xue Cui, 2023. "Sovereign default network and currency risk premia," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    19. Simarjeet Singh & Nidhi Walia, 2022. "Momentum investing: a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(1), pages 87-113, February.
    20. Taylor, Mark & Filippou, Ilias & Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2020. "Exchange Rate Prediction with Machine Learning and a Smart Carry Trade Portfolio," CEPR Discussion Papers 15305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Taylor, Mark & Filippou, Ilias & Gozluklu, Arie & Nguyen, My, 2020. "U.S. Populist Rhetoric and Currency Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 15054, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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