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Covered interest rate parity in emerging markets

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  • Skinner, Frank S.
  • Mason, Andrew

Abstract

This paper finds that while covered interest rate parity holds for large and small triple A rated economies, it holds for emerging markets only for a three-month maturity. For a five-year horizon the size and frequency of violations lead to the conclusion that covered interest rate parity does not hold for longer maturities for Brazil, Chile, Russia and South Korea. Overall this paper finds that aspects of credit risk are the source of violations in CIRP in the long-term capital markets rather than transactions costs or the size of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Skinner, Frank S. & Mason, Andrew, 2011. "Covered interest rate parity in emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 355-363.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:20:y:2011:i:5:p:355-363
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2011.06.008
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Augustin & Mikhail Chernov & Lukas Schmid & Dongho Song, 2024. "The Term Structure of Covered Interest Rate Parity Violations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 2077-2114, June.
    2. Eugenio Cerutti & Haonan Zhou, 2024. "Uncovering CIP Deviations in Emerging Markets: Distinctions, Determinants, and Disconnect," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 196-252, March.
    3. Gutierrez, Bryan & Ivashina, Victoria & Salomao, Juliana, 2023. "Why is dollar debt Cheaper? Evidence from Peru," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 245-272.
    4. Christodoulakis, George & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel, 2013. "Behavioural asymmetries in the G7 foreign exchange market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 261-270.
    5. Suh, Sangwon & Kim, Young Ju, 2016. "Covered interest parity and arbitrage paradox in emerging markets: Evidence from the Korean market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 161-176.
    6. Pippenger, John, 2018. "Forward Bias, Uncovered Interest Parity And Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt1778z416, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    7. Christopher E.S. WARBURTON, 2018. "Covered Interest Parity And Frictions In Currency And Money Markets: Analysis Of British Pound And Dollar For The Period 1999-2006," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 18(1), pages 55-72.
    8. Murat Duran & Doruk Kucuksarac, 2012. "Are Swap and Bond Markets Alternatives to Each Other in Turkey?," Working Papers 1223, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    9. Choi, Yoonho & Choi, E. Kwan, 2022. "Why exchange rate pass-through matters in forward exchange markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Geyikçi, Utku Bora & Özyıldırım, Süheyla, 2023. "Deviations from covered interest parity in the emerging markets after the global financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    11. Simpson, Marc W. & Grossmann, Axel, 2014. "An examination of the forward prediction error of U.S. dollar exchange rates and how they are related to bid-ask spreads, purchasing power parity disequilibria, and forward premium asymmetry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-238.
    12. Mehmet Altuntas, 2021. "The Interest Rate Parity in Fragile Five Countries: Evidence from Unit Root Tests with Breaks," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 327-349, July.
    13. Chernov, Mikhail & Augustin, Patrick & Schmid, Lukas & Song, Dongho, 2020. "The term structure of CIP violations," CEPR Discussion Papers 14774, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Pippenger, John, 2017. "Forward Bias, The Failure Of Uncovered Interest Parity And Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2ff194s2, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    15. Zuzanna Wośko, 2016. "Credit Risk of FX Loans in Poland. Debt Service Burden and the Effect of Neutralization of Currency Depreciation by Foreign Interest Rates," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(1), pages 43-59, March.
    16. Kuga Iakov & Elena Kuzmina, 2016. "Covered interest parity: evidence from Russian money market," EERC Working Paper Series 16/01e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    17. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Santiago Gomez-Malagon & Luis F. Melo-Velandia & Daniel Ordoñez-Callamand, 2020. "A rank approach for studying cross-currency bases and the covered interest rate parity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 357-369, July.
    18. Ki Young Park & Ji Yong Um, 2016. "Spillover Effects of United States’ Unconventional Monetary Policy on Korean Bond Markets: Evidence from High-Frequency Data," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 54(1), pages 27-58, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covered interest rate parity; CDS; Credit risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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