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Are Swap and Bond Markets Alternatives to Each Other in Turkey?

  • Murat Duran
  • Doruk Kucuksarac

Cross currency swaps are agreements to exchange interest payments and principals denominated in two different currencies and usually have one leg fixed and the other floating. The interest rate on the fixed leg is closely related to the yields on the securities of the same tenure and currency. In Turkey, cross currency swaps and treasury bonds have similar cash flow structures and risk profiles. Hence these markets are usually considered as alternatives to each other. In this context, using daily data for the period August 2008 – January 2012, this study investigates the level relationship between the cross currency swap rates and treasury bond yields of 1-month to 4-year tenures by the cointegration testing procedure suggested by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (PSS). Our empirical results indicate that, at shorter tenures, cross currency swap rates and treasury bond yields have a one-to-one long-run equilibrium relationship and hence the deviations from the equilibrium are quickly arbitraged away. On the other hand, the relationship becomes weaker as the tenure exceeds 6 months and completely disappears after 1 year. We also carry out some robustness checks and the results obtained from these analyses support our initial findings.

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File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TCMB+EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/PUBLICATIONS/Research/Working+Paperss/2012/12-23
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Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 1223.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1223
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  1. Maurizio Michael Habib & Mark Joy, 2010. "Foreign-currency bonds: currency choice and the role of uncovered and covered interest parity," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(8), pages 601-626.
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  9. Fletcher, Donna J & Taylor, Larry W, 1996. ""Swap" Covered Interest Parity in Long-Date Capital Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 530-38, August.
  10. Fong, Wai-Ming & Valente, Giorgio & Fung, Joseph K.W., 2010. "Covered interest arbitrage profits: The role of liquidity and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1098-1107, May.
  11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  12. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February.
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  14. Popper, Helen, 1993. "Long-term covered interest parity: evidence from currency swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 439-448, August.
  15. Eriksson , Åsa, 2004. "Testing Structural Hypotheses on Cointegration Vectors: A Monte Carlo Study," Working Papers 2004:29, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  16. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Denis Gromb & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "Limits of Arbitrage," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 251-275, December.
  18. Tor Jacobson, 1995. "Simulating small-sample properties of the maximum likelihood cointegration method : estimation and testing," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 96-107, Autumn.
  19. Takezawa, Nobuya, 1995. "Currency swaps and long-term covered interest parity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 181-185, August.
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