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A rank approach for studying cross-currency bases and the covered interest rate parity

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Abstract

We use the recently developed panel rank-cointegration test proposed by Pedroni et al. [2015] to check for the stability conditions of the cross-country money market interest rate bases. Using weekly information on short-term interest rates and spot and forward exchange rates for a set of 20 European economies during 2005-2017, we show that in most cases these bases are non-stationary, implying the failure of the Covered Interest Rate Parity condition. Concretely, a mean-reverting behavior is encountered in only two cases. The first includes Greece, Italy and Portugal, while the second Belgium, France and Germany.

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  • Daniel Ordoñez-Callamand & Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Santiago Gomez-Malagon & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia, 2017. "A rank approach for studying cross-currency bases and the covered interest rate parity," Borradores de Economia 994, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:994
    DOI: 10.32468/be.994
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    1. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    2. Niall Coffey & Warren B. Hrung & Asani Sarkar, 2009. "Capital constraints, counterparty risk, and deviations from covered interest rate parity," Staff Reports 393, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. In Choi & Pentti Saikkonen, 2004. "Testing linearity in cointegrating smooth transition regressions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 341-365, December.
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    5. Pedroni, Peter L. & Vogelsang, Timothy J. & Wagner, Martin & Westerlund, Joakim, 2015. "Nonparametric rank tests for non-stationary panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 378-391.
    6. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John, 2006. "Dynamics of Intra-EMS Interest Rate Linkages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 469-482, March.
    7. Wenxin Du & Alexander Tepper & Adrien Verdelhan, 2018. "Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 915-957, June.
    8. Sonsoles Gallego & Alicia García Herrero & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "The Asian and European Banking Systems: The Case of Spain in the Quest for Develpoment and Stability," Working Papers 0217, Banco de España.
    9. Claudio Borio & Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2016. "Covered interest parity lost: understanding the cross-currency basis," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    10. Nicholas M. Kiefer & Timothy J. Vogelsang, 2002. "Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Standard Errors Using The Bartlett Kernel Without Truncation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 2093-2095, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge Hirs-Garzon, 2017. "Uncovering the time-varying nature of causality between oil prices and stock market returns: A multi-country study," Borradores de Economia 1009, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Gamboa-Arbelaez, Juliana, 2020. "Dynamic relations between oil and stock market returns: A multi-country study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Sevgi Coşkun & Oyakhilome Ibhagui, 2022. "Technology shocks and covered interest parity deviations in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1337-1374, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covered Interest Rate Parity; Nonparametric rank tests; Cointegration; Time series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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