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Covered interest rate parity deviations, COVID-19 pandemic infection cases, and vaccination

Author

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  • Chen, Yu-Lun
  • Li, Yi-Hua
  • Mo, Wan-Shin
  • Yang, J. Jimmy

Abstract

This study explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on deviations from covered interest rate parity (CIP) for G10 currencies. We find that a higher number of COVID-19 infection cases and a higher stringency index, which captures the strictness of policies and government interventions, are associated with larger CIP deviations. However, this relation disappears after COVID-19 vaccines became available. This finding indicates that vaccines not only represent a significant advancement in combating the coronavirus but also contribute to improving efficiency in the FX market by mitigating uncertainty and stabilizing economic conditions. Furthermore, we find that the rise of the U.S. dollar during the COVID-19 pandemic contributes to persistent deviations from CIP.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Yu-Lun & Li, Yi-Hua & Mo, Wan-Shin & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2025. "Covered interest rate parity deviations, COVID-19 pandemic infection cases, and vaccination," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:99:y:2025:i:c:s1042443125000125
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102122
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covered interest rate parity (CIP); COVID-19 pandemic; Stringency index; Cross-currency basis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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