The Forward Premium Puzzle And Risk Premiums
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
- Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017.
"Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February.
- Evans, Martin D. & Lyons, Richard K., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series qt0dh1c16w, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
- Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey & Poonawala, Jumana, 2010.
"The forward market in emerging currencies: Less biased than in major currencies,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 585-598, April.
- Jeffrey Frankel & Jumana Poonawala, 2006. "The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased Than in Major Currencies," NBER Working Papers 12496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey & Poonawala, Jumana, 2009. "The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased Than in Major Currencies," Working Paper Series rwp09-023, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Poonawala, Jumana, 2009. "The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased than in Major Currencies," Scholarly Articles 4448888, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
- Jun Nagayasu, 2011.
"The Common Component in Forward Premiums: Evidence from the Asia–Pacific Region,"
Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 750-762, September.
- Nagayasu, Jun, 2010. "The Common Component in the Forward Premium: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific Region," MPRA Paper 24549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 376-391, June.
- Joseph P. Byrne & Jun Nagayasu, 2012.
"Common Factors Of The Exchange Risk Premium In Emerging European Markets,"
Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(Supplemen), pages 71-85, December.
- Byrne, Joseph P & Nagayasu, Jun, 2011. "Common factors of the exchange risk premium in emerging European markets," MPRA Paper 31393, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Engel, Charles, 1996.
"The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
- Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989.
"Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(1), pages 139-161.
- Froot, Kenneth A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5w65g4zg, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Kenneth A. Froot and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Economics Working Papers 8874, University of California at Berkeley.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1997.
"Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 297., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007.
"The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
- Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2004. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and US Consumption Growth Risk," 2004 Meeting Papers 136c, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-045, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Lustig, H. & Verdelhan, A., 2006. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," Working papers 155, Banque de France.
- Adrien Verdelhan & Hanno Lustig, 2005. "The Cross-Section Of Foreign Currency Risk Premia And Consumption Growth Risk," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-019, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Stephen Hall & P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas & Amangeldi Kenjegaliev, 2011. "The Forward Rate Premium Puzzle: A Resolution?," Discussion Papers in Economics 11/23, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
- Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
- Niall Coffey & Warren B. Hrung & Asani Sarkar, 2009. "Capital constraints, counterparty risk, and deviations from covered interest rate parity," Staff Reports 393, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Torrance, Thomas S, 1990. "Expectations Formation and Risk in Four Foreign Exchange Markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 544-561, July.
- Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-192, Summer.
- Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000.
"The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
- Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 1999. "The Forward Premium Puzzle: Different Tales from Developed and Emerging Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2169, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kocenda, Evzen & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2009.
"Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2164-2173, November.
- Tigran Poghosyan & Evzen Kocenda, 2007. "Macroeconomic Sources of Foreign Exchange Risk in New EU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp898, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009.
"Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 127-154, July.
- Craig Burnside & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach," NBER Working Papers 13278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio & Burnside, Craig, 2007. "Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6399, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1992. "Measuring International Capital Mobility: A Review," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 197-202, May.
- Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994.
"Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
- Kim, C-J., 1991. "Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching," Papers 91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
- Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2010. "Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 870-904, June.
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Nagayasu, Jun, 2014.
"The forward premium puzzle and the Euro,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 436-451.
- Jun, Nagayasu, 2013. "The Forward Premium Puzzle and The Euro," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-65, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Jun Nagayasu, 2013. "The forward premium puzzle and the euro," Working Papers 1317, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Nagayasu, Jun, 2013. "The Forward Premium Puzzle And The Euro," MPRA Paper 45746, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Engel, Charles, 2014.
"Exchange Rates and Interest Parity,"
Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522,
Elsevier.
- Charles Engel, 2013. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 19336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kumar, Satish, 2019. "Does risk premium help uncover the uncovered interest parity failure?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
- Anella Munro, 2014.
"Exchange rates, expected returns and risk,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
DP2014/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Anella Munro, 2014. "Exchange rates, expected returns and risk: UIP unbound," CAMA Working Papers 2014-73, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Matthieu Bussière & Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Jonas Heipertz, 2022.
"The New Fama Puzzle,"
IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(3), pages 451-486, September.
- Matthieu Bussiere & Menzie D. Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Jonas Heipertz, 2018. "The New Fama Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 24342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Matthieu Bussière & Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Jonas Heipertz, 2022. "The New Fama Puzzle," Post-Print hal-04459560, HAL.
- Charles Engel, 2011.
"The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium,"
Working Papers
272011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Engel, Charles, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," Economics Series 265, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Charles Engel, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," NBER Working Papers 17116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Demosthenes N. Tambakis & Nikola Tarashev, 2012. "Systematic monetary policy and the forward premium puzzle," BIS Working Papers 396, Bank for International Settlements.
- Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vitale, 2016.
"Carry Trades, Order Flow, and the Forward Bias Puzzle,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1113-1134, September.
- Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vitale, 2015. "Carry Trades, Order Flow and the Forward Bias Puzzle," Working Papers 761, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vitale, 2015. "Carry Trades, Order Flow and the Forward Bias Puzzle," Working Papers 761, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 2015. "Currency forecast errors and carry trades at times of low interest rates: Evidence from survey data on the yen/dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-19.
- Shehadeh, Ali & Li, Youwei & Moore, Michael, 2016. "The Forward Premium Bias, Carry Trade Return and the Risks of Volatility and Liquidity," MPRA Paper 71709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Frankel, Jeffrey & Poonawala, Jumana, 2010.
"The forward market in emerging currencies: Less biased than in major currencies,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 585-598, April.
- Jeffrey Frankel & Jumana Poonawala, 2006. "The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased Than in Major Currencies," NBER Working Papers 12496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Poonawala, Jumana, 2009. "The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased than in Major Currencies," Scholarly Articles 4448888, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
- Frankel, Jeffrey & Poonawala, Jumana, 2009. "The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased Than in Major Currencies," Working Paper Series rwp09-023, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Lee, Byung-Joo, 2013. "Uncovered interest parity puzzle: Asymmetric responses," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 238-249.
- Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2006. "Survey of Literature on Covered and Uncovered Interest Parities," MPRA Paper 22737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981.
- C. Emre Alper & Oya Pinar Ardic & Salih Fendoglu, 2009.
"The Economics Of The Uncovered Interest Parity Condition For Emerging Markets,"
Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 115-138, February.
- Alper, C. Emre & Ardic, Oya Pinar & Fendoglu, Salih, 2007. "The Economics of Uncovered Interest Parity Condition for Emerging Markets: A Survey," MPRA Paper 4079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Han, Bing & Hirshleifer, David & Wang, Tracy Yue, 2005.
"Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle,"
Working Paper Series
2005-21, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Han, Bing & Hirshleifer, David & Wang, Tracy, 2005. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle," MPRA Paper 6497, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2007.
- Tracy Yue Wang & David Hirshleifer & Bing Han, 2010. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle," 2010 Meeting Papers 1201, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Simpson, Marc W. & Grossmann, Axel, 2014. "An examination of the forward prediction error of U.S. dollar exchange rates and how they are related to bid-ask spreads, purchasing power parity disequilibria, and forward premium asymmetry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-238.
- Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vital, 2010.
"A Transaction Data Study of the Forward Bias Puzzle,"
Working Paper
2010/26, Norges Bank.
- Vitale, Paolo & Rime, Dagfinn & Breedon, Francis, 2010. "A Transaction Data Study of the Forward Bias Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Saad Quayyum, 2012. "Long Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity Re-Assessed," NBER Working Papers 18482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zigraiova, Diana & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2021.
"How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
- Havranek, Tomas & Novak, Jiri & Zigraiova, Diana, 2020. "How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis," MetaArXiv 348kc, Center for Open Science.
- Zigraiova, Diana & Havranek, Tomas & Novak, Jiri, 2020. "How Puzzling Is the Forward Premium Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," EconStor Preprints 213578, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
- Diana Zigraiova & Tomas Havranek & Jiri Novak, 2020. "How Puzzling Is the Forward Premium Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers IES 2020/6, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2020.
- Diana Zigraiova & Tomas Havranek & Jiri Novak, 2020. "How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis," Working Papers 46, European Stability Mechanism.
- Havranek, Tomas & Zigraiova, Diana & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2021. "How Puzzling Is the Forward Premium Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 15817, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
More about this item
Keywords
forward premium puzzle; risk premium; time-varying parameters; financial crises;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-UPT-2012-11-17 (Utility Models and Prospect Theory)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42472. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.