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The Forward Rate Premium Puzzle: A Resolution?

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen Hall
  • P. A. V. B. Swamy
  • George S. Tavlas
  • Amangeldi Kenjegaliev

Abstract

Empirical studies report that there is a negative relationship between the spot difference and forward premium. This result violates the forward rate unbiasedness theory. Using standard regression we found that recent samples give mixed results with both positive and negative coefficients. One possibility is that the negative coefficients could arise due to the non-linearities in the series and misspecification. To overcome these problems we employed a relatively novel technique. As an alternative to the standard regression we used a time-varying coefficient technique. This methodology estimates bias-free coefficients and thus should provide better estimates of the link between spot and forward rates. The findings of the time-varying coefficient model strongly support the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis. All the parameters are very close to unity and significant. At the same time our results do not violate the efficient market theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Hall & P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas & Amangeldi Kenjegaliev, 2011. "The Forward Rate Premium Puzzle: A Resolution?," Discussion Papers in Economics 11/23, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:11/23
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    File URL: https://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/dp11-23.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nagayasu, Jun, 2014. "The forward premium puzzle and the Euro," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 436-451.
    2. Nagayasu, Jun, 2012. "The Forward Premium Puzzle And Risk Premiums," MPRA Paper 42472, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hall, Stephen G. & Kenjegaliev, Amangeldi & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2013. "Measuring currency pressures: The cases of the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, and the UK pound," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-20.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forward premium anomaly; Time-varying coefficients; spurious;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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