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Understanding Liquidity and Credit Risks in the Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Deborah Gefang

    () (Department of Economics, University of Lancaster)

  • Gary Koop

    () (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • Simon Potter

    () (Research and Statistics Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Abstract

This paper develops a structured dynamic factor model for the spreads between London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and overnight index swap (OIS) rates for a panel of banks. Our model involves latent factors which relect liquidity and credit risk. Our empirical results show that surges in the short term LIBOR-OIS spreads during the 2007-2009 financial crisis were largely driven by liquidity risk. However, credit risk played a more significant role in the longer term (twelve-month) LIBOR-OIS spread. The liquidity risk factors are more volatile than the credit risk factor. Most of the familiar events in the financial crisis are linked more to movements in liquidity risk than credit risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2011. "Understanding Liquidity and Credit Risks in the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 1114, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1114
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jbfina:v:83:y:2017:i:c:p:135-152 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Soedarmono, Wahyoe & Machrouh, Fouad & Tarazi, Amine, 2013. "Bank competition, crisis and risk taking: Evidence from emerging markets in Asia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 196-221.
    3. Vladyslav Sushko & Claudio Borio & Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2016. "The failure of covered interest parity: FX hedging demand and costly balance sheets," BIS Working Papers 590, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. McAndrews, James & Sarkar, Asani & Wang, Zhenyu, 2017. "The effect of the term auction facility on the London interbank offered rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 135-152.
    5. Muto, Ichiro, 2012. "A Simple Interest Rate Model with Unobserved Components: The Role of the Interbank Reference Rate," MPRA Paper 43220, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Smales, Lee A., 2016. "News sentiment and bank credit risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 37-61.
    7. Gallitschke, Janek & Seifried (née Müller), Stefanie & Seifried, Frank Thomas, 2017. "Interbank interest rates: Funding liquidity risk and XIBOR basis spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 142-152.
    8. repec:eee:glofin:v:34:y:2017:i:c:p:16-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Azusa Takeyama & Naoshi Tsuchida, 2015. "The Interaction between Funding Liquidity and Market Liquidity: Evidence from Subprime and European Crises," IMES Discussion Paper Series 15-E-14, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    10. Anthony H. Tu & Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen, 2016. "What Derives the Bond Portfolio Value-at-Risk: Information Roles of Macroeconomic and Financial Stress Factors," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-006, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    11. Carpenter, Seth B. & Demiralp, Selva & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "Volatility in the federal funds market and money market spreads during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 225-233.
    12. Prokopczuk, Marcel & Siewert, Jan B. & Vonhoff, Volker, 2013. "Credit risk in covered bonds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 102-120.
    13. José Da Fonseca & Peiming Wang, 2016. "A joint analysis of market indexes in credit default swap, volatility and stock markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(19), pages 1767-1784, April.
    14. Sheng Huang & Jonathan Williams & Ru Xie, 2017. "The Future of Money: Liquidity co-movement between financial institutions and real estate firms: evidence from China," Working Papers 17004, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    15. King, Thomas B. & Lewis, Kurt F., 2014. "What Drives Bank Funding Spreads?," Working Paper Series WP-2014-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    16. Pedro Pires Ribeiro & José Dias Curto, 2017. "Volatility spillover effects in interbank money markets," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 105-136, February.
    17. Cui, Jin & In, Francis & Maharaj, Elizabeth Ann, 2016. "What drives the Libor–OIS spread? Evidence from five major currency Libor–OIS spreads," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 358-375.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    LIBOR-OIS spread; factor model; credit default swap; Bayesian;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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