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Do information contagion and business model similarities explain bank credit risk commonalities?

Author

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  • Wang, Dieter
  • van Lelyveld, Iman
  • Schaumburg, Julia

Abstract

This paper revisits the credit spread puzzle for banks from the perspective of information contagion. The puzzle consists of two stylized facts: Structural determinants of credit risk not only have low explanatory power but also fail to capture common factors in the residuals. We reproduce the puzzle for European bank credit spreads and hypothesize that the puzzle exists because structural models ignore contagion effects. We therefore extend the structural approach to include information contagion through bank business model similarities. To capture this channel, we propose an intuitive measure for portfolio overlap and apply it to the complete asset holdings of the largest banks in the Eurozone. Incorporating this unique network information into the structural model increases explanatory power and removes a systemic common factor from the residuals. Furthermore, neglecting the network likely overstates the importance of structural determinants. JEL Classification: G01, G21, C32, C33, C38

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Dieter & van Lelyveld, Iman & Schaumburg, Julia, 2019. "Do information contagion and business model similarities explain bank credit risk commonalities?," ESRB Working Paper Series 94, European Systemic Risk Board.
  • Handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:201994
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    2. Y'erali Gandica & Sophie B'ereau & Jean-Yves Gnabo, 2019. "A multilevel analysis to systemic exposure: insights from local and system-wide information," Papers 1910.08611, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank business model similarities; credit spread puzzle; dynamic network effects model.; information contagion; portfolio overlap measure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis

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