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Contagion in the Banking Industry: a Robust-to-Endogeneity Analysis

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  • Sophie Béreau

    (CeReFiM - Center for Research in Finance and Management [UNamur] - UNamur - Université de Namur [Namur], NaXys - Namur Center for Complex Systems [Namur] - UNamur - Université de Namur [Namur])

  • Nicolas Debarsy

    (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Cyrille Dossougoin
  • Jean-Yves Gnabo

    (CeReFiM - Center for Research in Finance and Management [UNamur] - UNamur - Université de Namur [Namur], NaXys - Namur Center for Complex Systems [Namur] - UNamur - Université de Namur [Namur])

Abstract

What drives financial contagion? The empirical literature aimed at modeling financial risk spillovers in crisis periods and documenting the role of contagion channels is subject to an endogeneity issue, as the channel itself can respond to a change in the level of risk. We tackle this issue by using a novel spatial econometric estimation procedure based on a control function approach and offer "robust-toendogeneity " evidence on the role of indirect financial contagion channels in the banking industry. Our estimations, based on on 28 large US banks during the financial crisis (2007Q3-2013Q2), confirm that several channels are endogeneous. Accounting for endogeneity is proved to be important for recovering reliable estimates of transmission mechanisms. Banks similarity in fundamentals, similarity in investment strategy as well as common exposure appear as significant drivers of contagion. Based on relevant transmission's channels, we build a simple systemic risk indicator named "Interaction Based Centrality". We show that it may help forecast vulnerable institutions in times of crisis and could thereby be used for monitoring purposes by regulatory authorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophie Béreau & Nicolas Debarsy & Cyrille Dossougoin & Jean-Yves Gnabo, 2022. "Contagion in the Banking Industry: a Robust-to-Endogeneity Analysis," Working Papers halshs-03513049, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03513049
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03513049
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    1. Yan, Guan & Liu, Zhidong, 2023. "Interconnectedness of financial institutions based on pledged shares in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

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    Keywords

    banking; common asset exposures; contagion; endogeneity; Katz centrality; market-price channel; information channel; spatial econometrics; spillover;
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