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Systemic Risk and Network Formation in the Interbank Market

We propose a novel mechanism to facilitate understanding of systemic risk in financial markets. The literature on systemic risk has focused on two mechanisms, common shocks and domino-like sequential default. Our approach is a formal model that provides an intellectual combination of the two by looking at how shocks propagate through a network of interconnected banks. Transmission in our model is not based on default. Instead, we provide a simple microfoundation of banks’ profitability based on classic competition incentives. As competitors lending quantities change, both for closely connected ones and the whole market, banks adjust their own lending decisions as a result, generating a ‘transmission’ of shocks through the system. We provide a unique equilibrium characterization of a static model, and embed this model into a full dynamic model of network formation with n agents. Because we have an explicit characterization of equilibrium behavior, we have a tractable way to bring the model to the data. Indeed, our measures of systemic risk capture the propagation of shocks in a wide variety of contexts; that is, it can explain the pattern of behavior both in good times as well as in crisis.

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Paper provided by Stockholm University, Department of Economics in its series Research Papers in Economics with number 2011:6.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 11 Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:2011_0006
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, Stockholm, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: +46 8 16 20 00
Fax: +46 8 16 14 25
Web page: http://www.ne.su.se/
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  1. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002. "Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Allen, Franklin & Babus, Ana & Carletti, Elena, 2010. "Financial Connections and Systemic Risk," Working Papers 10-20, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  3. Cohen-Cole, Ethan, 2006. "Multiple groups identification in the linear-in-means model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 157-162, August.
  4. Jeffrey R. Brown & Zoran Ivkovic & Paul A. Smith & Scott Weisbenner, 2008. "Neighbors Matter: Causal Community Effects and Stock Market Participation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1509-1531, 06.
  5. Iori, Giulia & Jafarey, Saqib & Padilla, Francisco G., 2006. "Systemic risk on the interbank market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 525-542, December.
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  8. Coralio Ballester & Antoni Calvó-Armengol & Yves Zenou, 2004. "Who's Who in Networks. Wanted: The Key Player," Working Papers 178, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  9. Soramäki, Kimmo & Bech, Morten L. & Arnold, Jeffrey & Glass, Robert J. & Beyeler, Walter E., 2007. "The topology of interbank payment flows," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 317-333.
  10. Calvó-Armengol, Antoni & Patacchini, Eleonora & Zenou, Yves, 2008. "Peer Effects and Social Networks in Education," CEPR Discussion Papers 7060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Lauren Cohen & Andrea Frazzini & Christopher Malloy, 2008. "The Small World of Investing: Board Connections and Mutual Fund Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(5), pages 951-979, October.
  12. Allen, F. & Babus, A. & Carletti, E., 2010. "Financial Connections and Systemic Risk," Discussion Paper 2010-88S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  13. Bryan S. Graham, 2008. "Identifying Social Interactions Through Conditional Variance Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(3), pages 643-660, 05.
  14. Giulia Iori & Saqib Jafarey, 2001. "Criticality in a model of banking crises," Papers cond-mat/0104080, arXiv.org.
  15. Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2011. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1114-1127, May.
  16. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Andrei Kirilenko & Eleonora Patacchini, 2010. "Are Networks Priced? Network Topology and Order Trading Strategies in High Liquidity Markets," EIEF Working Papers Series 1011, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Apr 2010.
  17. Iori, Giulia & De Masi, Giulia & Precup, Ovidiu Vasile & Gabbi, Giampaolo & Caldarelli, Guido, 2008. "A network analysis of the Italian overnight money market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 259-278, January.
  18. F. Kyriakopoulos & S. Thurner & C. Puhr & S. W. Schmitz, 2009. "Network and eigenvalue analysis of financial transaction networks," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 71(4), pages 523-531, October.
  19. Marc Pr�pper & Iman van Lelyveld & Ronald Heijmans, 2008. "Towards a Network Description of Interbank Payment Flows," DNB Working Papers 177, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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