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Systemic Risk and Network Formation in the Interbank Market

  • Cohen-Cole, Ethan
  • Patacchini, Eleonora
  • Zenou, Yves

We propose a novel mechanism to facilitate understanding of systemic risk in financial markets. The literature on systemic risk has focused on two mechanisms, common shocks and domino-like sequential default. Our approach is a formal model that provides an intellectual combination of the two by looking at how shocks propagate through a network of interconnected banks. Transmission in our model is not based on default. Instead, we provide a simple microfoundation of banks' profitability based on classic competition incentives. As competitors lending quantities change, both for closely connected ones and the whole market, banks adjust their own lending decisions as a result, generating a `transmission' of shocks through the system. We provide a unique equilibrium characterization of a static model, and embed this model into a full dynamic model of network formation with n agents. Because we have an explicit characterization of equilibrium behavior, we have a tractable way to bring the model to the data. Indeed, our measures of systemic risk capture the propagation of shocks in a wide variety of contexts; that is, it can explain the pattern of behavior both in good times as well as in crisis.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8332.

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Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8332
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  1. Michael D. König & Claudio J. Tessone & Yves Zenou, 2010. "From Assortative To Dissortative Networks: The Role Of Capacity Constraints," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(04), pages 483-499.
  2. Franklin Allen & Ana Babus & Elena Carletti, 2010. "Financial Connections and Systemic Risk," Economics Working Papers ECO2010/30, European University Institute.
  3. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002. "Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2011. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1114-1127, May.
  5. Giulia Iori & Saqib Jafarey, 2001. "Criticality in a model of banking crises," Papers cond-mat/0104080, arXiv.org.
  6. Coralio Ballester & Antoni Calvó-Armengol & Yves Zenou, 2004. "Who's Who in Networks. Wanted: The Key Player," Working Papers 178, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  7. Iori, G. & Masi, G. D. & Precup, O. V. & Gabbi, G. & Caldarelli, G., 2005. "A network analysis of the Italian oversight money market," Working Papers 05/05, Department of Economics, City University London.
  8. Calvó-Armengol, Antoni & Patacchini, Eleonora & Zenou, Yves, 2008. "Peer Effects and Social Networks in Education," IZA Discussion Papers 3859, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Kimmo Soramaki & Morten L. Bech & Jeffrey Arnold & Robert J. Glass & Walter Beyeler, 2006. "The topology of interbank payment flows," Staff Reports 243, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Bramoullé, Yann & Djebbari, Habiba & Fortin, Bernard, 2009. "Identification of peer effects through social networks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 41-55, May.
  11. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Andrei Kirilenko & Eleonora Patacchini, 2010. "Are Networks Priced? Network Topology and Order Trading Strategies in High Liquidity Markets," EIEF Working Papers Series 1011, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Apr 2010.
  12. Jeffrey R. Brown & Zoran Ivkovich & Paul A. Smith & Scott Weisbenner, 2007. "Neighbors Matter: Causal Community Effects and Stock Market Participation," NBER Working Papers 13168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Lauren Cohen & Andrea Frazzini & Christopher Malloy, 2008. "The Small World of Investing: Board Connections and Mutual Fund Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(5), pages 951-979, October.
  14. Allen, F. & Babus, A. & Carletti, E., 2010. "Financial Connections and Systemic Risk," Discussion Paper 2010-88S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  15. Bryan S. Graham, 2008. "Identifying Social Interactions Through Conditional Variance Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(3), pages 643-660, 05.
  16. Cohen-Cole, Ethan, 2006. "Multiple groups identification in the linear-in-means model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 157-162, August.
  17. Marc Pr�pper & Iman van Lelyveld & Ronald Heijmans, 2008. "Towards a Network Description of Interbank Payment Flows," DNB Working Papers 177, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  18. F. Kyriakopoulos & S. Thurner & C. Puhr & S. W. Schmitz, 2009. "Network and eigenvalue analysis of financial transaction networks," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 71(4), pages 523-531, October.
  19. Iori, Giulia & Jafarey, Saqib & Padilla, Francisco G., 2006. "Systemic risk on the interbank market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 525-542, December.
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