IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mnb/opaper/2006-57.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Topology of the Hungarian large-value transfer system

Author

Listed:
  • Ágnes Lublóy

    () (Corvinus University of Budapest, Institute of Finance and Accounting)

Abstract

The paper deals with the topology of the Hungarian large-value transfer system, known as VIBER. The paper is generally descriptive in nature, the goal of the research being the assessment of the payment topology. A graph theoretical framework is applied; the graph representation allows a system-wide assessment of high-value payments. By taking interdependences between institutions into account, seven centrality indices are defined. The different measures of centrality focus on different aspects of the payment topology. The goal of applying graph theoretical methods is twofold. Firstly, the paper aims to analyse the permanency of the network over time. This is achieved by depicting the centrality measures, examining the correlation coefficients of the centrality indices across days, drawing empirical distributions and defining matrices of the strongest linkages. It is shown that the structure of the payments was permanent in June 2005; ad hoc relationships did not dominate the topology of the payments. The most central institutions were the same; the key players did not vary across days. One interesting feature of the topology was that only 30 per cent of the existing linkages were permanent linkages, although nearly 90 per cent of the payment orders were sent or received through these linkages. The Hungarian payment system can be characterised as a structure with multiple liquidity centres. Secondly, according to certain network criteria institutions most capable of generating contagion were identified. The fact that a liquidity crisis could arise if funds are not transferred to counterparties, although the counterparties might expect it, was taken into account. A well-defined group of institutions was identified; the illiquidity of these institutions could cause the most serious disruption of the payment system. Surprisingly, the institutions most capable of generating contagion were not the largest Hungarian banks measured by asset size. Rather they were directly or indirectly active players of the USD/HUF FX swap market.

Suggested Citation

  • Ágnes Lublóy, 2006. "Topology of the Hungarian large-value transfer system," MNB Occasional Papers 2006/57, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  • Handle: RePEc:mnb:opaper:2006/57
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/op-57.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raf Wouters & Frank Smets, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183.
    2. Lane, Philip R., 2001. "The new open economy macroeconomics: a survey," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 235-266.
    3. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
    4. Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "State-Dependent Pricing and the General Equilibrium Dynamics of Money and Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(2), pages 655-690.
    5. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    6. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    7. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 553-578.
    8. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    9. Erceg, Christopher J. & Levin, Andrew T., 2003. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 915-944, May.
    10. Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2003. "The Exchange Rate and Inflation in the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 585-608, November.
    11. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    12. Ravi Balakrishnan & J David Lopez-Salido, 2002. "Understanding UK inflation: the role of openness," Bank of England working papers 164, Bank of England.
    13. Coenen, Gunter & Levin, Andrew T. & Christoffel, Kai, 2007. "Identifying the influences of nominal and real rigidities in aggregate price-setting behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2439-2466, November.
    14. Arratibel, Olga & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Thimann, Christian, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and dual inflation in accession countries: a 'New Keynesian' perspective," Working Paper Series 0132, European Central Bank.
    15. Nelson, Charles R & Startz, Richard, 1990. "Some Further Results on the Exact Small Sample Properties of the Instrumental Variable Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 967-976, July.
    16. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2004. "Into the Mussa puzzle: monetary policy regimes and the real exchange rate in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 191-217.
    17. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    18. Fabio Rumler, 2007. "Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 427-451.
    19. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    20. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Moore, George R. & Schuh, Scott D., 1995. "Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model Maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 115-157, February.
    21. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March.
    22. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, February.
    23. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2006. "Inflation Persistence and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 587-614, April.
    24. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Attila Rátfai, 2007. "The frequency and size of price adjustment: microeconomic evidence," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 751-762.
    26. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 173-196.
    27. John Shea, 1997. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 348-352, May.
    28. Jordi Galí & J David López-Salido, 2001. "A New Phillips curve for Spain," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 174-203 Bank for International Settlements.
    29. Ball, Laurence, 1994. "Credible Disinflation with Staggered Price-Setting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 282-289, March.
    30. Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    31. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    32. Ratfai, A., 2000. "The size, frequency and synchronization of price adjustment: microeconomic evidence," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0029, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    33. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marc Pröpper & Iman van Lelyveld & Ronald Heijmans, 2008. "Towards a Network Description of Interbank Payment Flows," DNB Working Papers 177, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Leonidov, A. & Rumyantsev, E., 2013. "Russian Interbank Systemic Risks Assessment from the Network Topology Point of View," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 65-80.
    3. Clara Machado & Carlos León & Miguel Sarmiento & Freddy Cepeda, 2011. "Riesgo Sistémico Y Estabilidad Del Sistema De Pagos De Alto Valor En Colombia: Análisis Bajo Topología De Redes Y Simulación De Pagos," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 29(65), pages 106-175, June.
    4. Jonnathan Cáceres Santos and René Aldazosa Inchauste, 2013. "Analizando el riesgo sistémico en Bolivia: una aplicación de modelos de topología de redes y simulación al funcionamiento del Sistema de Pagos de Alto Valor," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 17(2(2012)-1), pages 45-80, January.
    5. Edson Bastos e Santos & Rama Cont, 2010. "The Brazilian Interbank Network Structure and Systemic Risk," Working Papers Series 219, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real time gross settlement; large-value transfer system; structure; network; topology; centrality indices.;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnb:opaper:2006/57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lorant Kaszab). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/mnbgvhu.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.