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Riesgo Sistémico y Estabilidad del Sistema de Pagos de Alto Valor en Colombia: Análisis bajo Topología de Redes y Simulación de Pagos

  • Clara Lía Machado

    ()

  • Carlos León

    ()

  • Miguel Sarmiento

    ()

  • Freddy Cepeda

    ()

  • Orlando Chipatecua

    ()

  • Jorge cely

    ()

Este documento estudia la estabilidad del sistema de pagos (SP) de alto valor en Colombia (CUD) ante el incumplimiento de una entidad sistémicamente importante, y evalúa la capacidad de respuesta de las entidades afectadas a partir de la utilización de sus recursos y a través de los mecanismos de liquidez que brinda el Banco de la República. De acuerdo con la literatura reciente, las entidades sistémicamente importantes se identifican bajo el concepto de too-connected-to-fail (TCTF) para diferentes escenarios de volatilidad del mercado de TES y de actividad del SP. La estabilidad del SP se evalúa mediante Topología de Redes (TR) y un Modelo de Simulación de Pagos (MSP), el cual incorpora un algoritmo de resolución de colas recursivo tipo FIFO (First In First Out) y un algoritmo de compensación multilateral. Los resultados de la TR sugieren que el CUD es una red de tamaño mediano, robusta, estable y concentrada. El MSP mostró, además, que variables como los saldos de las entidades en el CUD, la oportunidad de las transacciones intradía, y la concentración de liquidez, inciden sobre el número de entidades afectadas. Se encontró que la mayoría de las entidades cuenta con mecanismos que les permiten solventar la iliquidez temporal en el SP. Sin embargo, existen entidades que, por su estructura y especialidad de su negocio, deben hacer un mayor esfuerzo en la administración del riesgo de liquidez.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 627.

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