IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tas/wpaper/37326.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamic effects of network exposure on equity markets

Author

Abstract

Until recently, there has been a growing research focusing on how to predict systemic risks to minimise the recurrence of financial crises, while the importance of understanding how network exposure contributes to the spread of financial distress in the financial system has been largely underestimated. This paper investigates whether network exposure contributes to both shock transmission and absorption. We utilise data from 45 economies and our findings show that both network intensity and interconnectedness in the financial system have impact on increasing network exposure. We also demonstrate how to estimate network intensity in the financial system. Our results indicate that an increased network intensity parameter is associated to period when the financial system is under stress.

Suggested Citation

  • Kangogo, Moses & Volkov, Vladimir, 2021. "Dynamic effects of network exposure on equity markets," Working Papers 2021-03, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:tas:wpaper:37326
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eprints.utas.edu.au/37326/1/2021-03_Kangogo_Volkov.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chowdhury, Biplob & Dungey, Mardi & Kangogo, Moses & Sayeed, Mohammad Abu & Volkov, Vladimir, 2019. "The changing network of financial market linkages: The Asian experience," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 71-92.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    3. Stefano Schiavo & Javier Reyes & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2010. "International trade and financial integration: a weighted network analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 389-399.
    4. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    5. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    6. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Interest Rate Volatility, Contagion and Convergence: An Empirical Investigation of the Cases of Argentina, Chile and Mexico," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 55-86, November.
    7. Silva, Thiago Christiano & de Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2016. "Network structure analysis of the Brazilian interbank market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 130-152.
    8. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Hassani, Hossein, 2018. "Forecasting global stock market implied volatility indices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 111-129.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2015. "Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 564-608, February.
    10. Tuomas Antero Peltonen & Michela Rancan & Peter Sarlin, 2019. "Interconnectedness of the banking sector as a vulnerability to crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 963-990, April.
    11. Gofman, Michael, 2017. "Efficiency and stability of a financial architecture with too-interconnected-to-fail institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 113-146.
    12. Cao, Yifei & Gregory-Smith, Ian & Montagnoli, Alberto, 2018. "Transmission of liquidity shocks: Evidence on cross-border bank ownership linkages," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 158-178.
    13. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
    14. Blasques, Francisco & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Schaumburg, Julia, 2016. "Spillover dynamics for systemic risk measurement using spatial financial time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 211-223.
    15. Roberto Guimarães-Filho & Mr. Gee Hee Hong, 2016. "Dynamic Connectedness of Asian Equity Markets," IMF Working Papers 2016/057, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    17. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Interest Rate Volatily, Contagion and Convergence: And Empirical Investigation of the Cases of Argentina, Chile and México," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 55-86, November.
    18. Camelia Minoiu & Chanhyun Kang & V.S. Subrahmanian & Anamaria Berea, 2015. "Does financial connectedness predict crises?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 607-624, April.
    19. Black, Lamont & Correa, Ricardo & Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao, 2016. "The systemic risk of European banks during the financial and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 107-125.
    20. Stefano Battiston & Guido Caldarelli, 2013. "Systemic Risk in Financial Networks," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 129-154, December.
    21. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    22. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
    23. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2016. "Volatility spillovers across stock index futures in Asian markets: Evidence from range volatility estimators," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 158-166.
    24. Alter, Adrian & Beyer, Andreas, 2014. "The dynamics of spillover effects during the European sovereign debt turmoil," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 134-153.
    25. Dufrénot, Gilles & Keddad, Benjamin, 2014. "Spillover effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on the volatility of the Indian equity markets: Coupling or uncoupling? A study on sector-based data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 17-32.
    26. Lee, Lung-fei, 2007. "The method of elimination and substitution in the GMM estimation of mixed regressive, spatial autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 155-189, September.
    27. Armin Eder & Sebastian Keiler, 2015. "CDS Spreads and Contagion Amongst Systemically Important Financial Institutions – A Spatial Econometric Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 291-309, October.
    28. Mink, Mark & de Haan, Jakob, 2013. "Contagion during the Greek sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 102-113.
    29. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & K.P, Prabheesh, 2014. "Stock returns, mutual fund flows and spillover shocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 146-162.
    30. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2015. "How likely is contagion in financial networks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 383-399.
    31. Janet L. Yellen, 2013. "Interconnectedness and Systemic Risk: Lessons from the Financial Crisis and Policy Implications : a speech at the American Economic Association/American Finance Association Joint Luncheon, San Diego, ," Speech 631, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Salant, Stephen W & Henderson, Dale W, 1978. "Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 627-648, August.
    33. Dungey, Mardi & Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan & Yang, Minxian, 2015. "Endogenous crisis dating and contagion using smooth transition structural GARCH," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 71-79.
    34. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2013. "Dynamic co-movements of stock market returns, implied volatility and policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 87-92.
    35. Chevallier, Julien & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Siverskog, Jonathan & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Market integration and financial linkages among stock markets in Pacific Basin countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 77-92.
    36. Geraci, Marco Valerio & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2018. "Measuring Interconnectedness between Financial Institutions with Bayesian Time-Varying Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 1371-1390, June.
    37. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    38. Asgharian, Hossein & Hess, Wolfgang & Liu, Lu, 2013. "A spatial analysis of international stock market linkages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4738-4754.
    39. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    40. Hueng, C. James & Yau, Ruey, 2013. "Country-specific idiosyncratic risk and global equity index returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 326-337.
    41. Mink, Mark, 2015. "Measuring stock market contagion: Local or common currency returns?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 18-24.
    42. Chan-Lau, Jorge A. & Liu, Estelle X. & Schmittmann, Jochen M., 2015. "Equity returns in the banking sector in the wake of the Great Recession and the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 164-172.
    43. Markose, Sheri & Giansante, Simone & Shaghaghi, Ali Rais, 2012. "‘Too interconnected to fail’ financial network of US CDS market: Topological fragility and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 627-646.
    44. Lee, Lung-Fei, 2002. "Consistency And Efficiency Of Least Squares Estimation For Mixed Regressive, Spatial Autoregressive Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 252-277, April.
    45. Gang-Jin Wang & Chi Xie & H. Eugene Stanley, 2018. "Correlation Structure and Evolution of World Stock Markets: Evidence from Pearson and Partial Correlation-Based Networks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 607-635, March.
    46. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    47. Viviana Fernandez, 2011. "Spatial linkages in international financial markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 237-245.
    48. Mardi Dungey & Eric Renault, 2018. "Identifying contagion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 227-250, March.
    49. Matthias Arnold & Sebastian Stahlberg & Dominik Wied, 2013. "Modeling different kinds of spatial dependence in stock returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 761-774, April.
    50. Raja Kali & Javier Reyes, 2010. "Financial Contagion On The International Trade Network," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 1072-1101, October.
    51. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2016. "Intra- and inter-regional return and volatility spillovers across emerging and developed markets: Evidence from stock indices and stock index futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 96-114.
    52. Tonzer, Lena, 2015. "Cross-border interbank networks, banking risk and contagion," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 19-32.
    53. Affinito, Massimiliano & Franco Pozzolo, Alberto, 2017. "The interbank network across the global financial crisis: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 90-107.
    54. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    55. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret, 2010. "World market risk, country-specific risk and expected returns in international stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1152-1165, June.
    56. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2016. "Contagion in financial networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68681, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    57. Hamed Amini & Rama Cont & Andreea Minca, 2016. "Resilience To Contagion In Financial Networks," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 329-365, April.
    58. Vitali, Stefania & Battiston, Stefano & Gallegati, Mauro, 2016. "Financial fragility and distress propagation in a network of regions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 56-75.
    59. Leopoldo Catania & Anna Gloria Billé, 2017. "Dynamic spatial autoregressive models with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 1178-1196, September.
    60. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    61. Paul Glasserman & H. Peyton Young, 2016. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(3), pages 779-831, September.
    62. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(2), pages 535-564.
    63. J. Elhorst, 2010. "Applied Spatial Econometrics: Raising the Bar," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-28.
    64. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2016. "On the Shock-Absorbing Properties of a Banking Union: Europe Compared with the United States," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(3), pages 359-386, September.
    65. Ariel J. Sun & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2017. "Financial networks and interconnectedness in an advanced emerging market economy," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 1833-1858, December.
    66. Lee, Lung-fei, 2007. "GMM and 2SLS estimation of mixed regressive, spatial autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 489-514, April.
    67. Stefanie Kleimeier & Thorsten Lehnert & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2008. "Measuring Financial Contagion Using Time‐Aligned Data: The Importance of the Speed of Transmission of Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(4), pages 493-508, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mardi Dungey & Moses Kangogo & Vladimir Volkov, 2022. "Dynamic effects of network exposure on equity markets," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(4), pages 569-629, December.
    2. Kangogo, Moses & Volkov, Vladimir, 2022. "Detecting signed spillovers in global financial markets: A Markov-switching approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Jose Arreola Hernandez & Sang Hoon Kang & Ron P. McIver & Seong-Min Yoon, 2021. "Network Interdependence and Optimization of Bank Portfolios from Developed and Emerging Asia Pacific Countries," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(4), pages 613-647, December.
    4. Chowdhury, Biplob & Dungey, Mardi & Kangogo, Moses & Sayeed, Mohammad Abu & Volkov, Vladimir, 2019. "The changing network of financial market linkages: The Asian experience," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 71-92.
    5. Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Kang, Sang Hoon & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2020. "Spillovers and diversification potential of bank equity returns from developed and emerging America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Christian Gross & Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "Analyzing credit risk transmission to the nonfinancial sector in Europe: A network approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 61-81, January.
    7. Jose Arreola Hernandez & Sang Hoon Kang & Seong‐Min Yoon, 2022. "Interdependence and portfolio optimisation of bank equity returns from developed and emerging Europe," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 678-696, January.
    8. Boyao Wu & Difang Huang & Muzi Chen, 2023. "Estimating contagion mechanism in global equity market with time‐zone effect," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 543-572, September.
    9. Sophie Béreau & Nicolas Debarsy & Cyrille Dossougoin & Jean-Yves Gnabo, 2022. "Contagion in the Banking Industry: a Robust-to-Endogeneity Analysis," Working Papers halshs-03513049, HAL.
    10. Rosenkranz, Peter & Melchor, Monica, 2022. "Asia’s financial interconnectedness: Evolution, implications, and insights from past crises," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 685-707.
    11. Tang, Qihe & Tong, Zhiwei & Xun, Li, 2022. "Insurance risk analysis of financial networks vulnerable to a shock," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(2), pages 756-771.
    12. Covi, Giovanni & Gorpe, Mehmet Ziya & Kok, Christoffer, 2021. "CoMap: Mapping Contagion in the Euro Area Banking Sector," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    13. Wu, Fei & Zhang, Dayong & Zhang, Zhiwei, 2019. "Connectedness and risk spillovers in China’s stock market: A sectoral analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).
    14. Yong Tang & Jason Jie Xiong & Zi-Yang Jia & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2018. "Complexities in Financial Network Topological Dynamics: Modeling of Emerging and Developed Stock Markets," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-31, November.
    15. Boyao Wu & Difang Huang & Muzi Chen, 2024. "Estimating Contagion Mechanism in Global Equity Market with Time-Zone Effect," Papers 2404.04335, arXiv.org.
    16. Yun, Tae-Sub & Jeong, Deokjong & Park, Sunyoung, 2019. "“Too central to fail” systemic risk measure using PageRank algorithm," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 251-272.
    17. Navarro, Noemí & Tran, Dan H., 2018. "Shock Diffusion in Regular Networks: The Role of Transitive Cycles," MPRA Paper 86267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Dungey, Mardi & Islam, Raisul & Volkov, Vladimir, 2020. "Crisis transmission: Visualizing vulnerability," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    19. Mark Paddrik & H. Peyton Young, 2016. "Contagion in the CDS Market," Working Papers 16-12, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    20. Linardi, Fernando & Diks, Cees & van der Leij, Marco & Lazier, Iuri, 2020. "Dynamic interbank network analysis using latent space models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets; financial networks; financial stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tas:wpaper:37326. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oscar Pavlov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dutasau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.