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Ranking systemically important financial institutions

We propose a simple network–based methodology for ranking systemically important financial institutions. We view the risks of firms –including both the financial sector and the real economy– as a network with nodes representing the volatility shocks. The metric for the connections of the nodes is the correlation between these shocks. Daily dynamic centrality measures allow us to rank firms in terms of risk connectedness and firm characteristics. We present a general systemic risk index for the financial sector. Results from applying this approach to all firms in the S&P500 for 2003–2011 are twofold. First, Bank of America, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo are consistently in the top 10 throughout the sample. Citigroup and Lehman Brothers also were consistently in the top 10 up to late 2008. At the end of the sample, insurance firms emerge as systemic. Second, the systemic risk in the financial sector built–up from early 2005, peaked in September 2008, and greatly reduced after the introduction of TARP and the rescue of AIG. Anxiety about European debt markets saw the systemic risk begin to rise again from April 2010. We further decompose these results to find that the systemic risk of insurance and deposit– taking institutions differs importantly, the latter experienced a decline from late 2007, in line with the burst of the housing price bubble, while the former continued to climb up to the rescue of AIG.

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File URL: http://eprints.utas.edu.au/15473/1/2012-08__DP_Dungey_Luciani_Veredes.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 15473.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 21 Nov 2012
Date of revision: 21 Nov 2012
Publication status: Published by the University of Tasmania. Discussion paper 2012-08
Handle: RePEc:tas:wpaper:15473
Contact details of provider: Postal: Private Bag 85, Hobart, Tasmania 7001
Phone: +61 3 6226 7672
Fax: +61 3 6226 7587
Web page: http://www.utas.edu.au/economics-finance/
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  1. Xavier Freixas & Bruno Parigi & Jean Charles Rochet, 1998. "Systemic risk, interbank relations and liquidity provision by the Central Bank," Economics Working Papers 440, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 1999.
  2. Mardi Dungey & Gerald P. Dwyer & Thomas Flavin, 2011. "Systematic and Liquidity Risk in Subprime-Mortgage Backed Securities," CAMA Working Papers 2011-30, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November.
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  6. Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Labys, Paul, 2002. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Working Papers 02-12, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  7. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
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  12. Jérôme Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2007. "Jumps, cojumps and macro announcements," Working Papers 2007-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  13. Doko Tchatoka, Firmin, 2012. "On the validity of Durbin-Wu-Hausman tests for assessing partial exogeneity hypotheses with possibly weak instruments," Working Papers 15061, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 06 Jul 2012.
  14. Nikola Tarashev & Mathias Drehmann, 2011. "Measuring the systemic importance of interconnected banks," BIS Working Papers 342, Bank for International Settlements.
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  16. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2011. "On the Network Topology of Variance Decompositions: Measuring the Connectedness of Financial Firms," NBER Working Papers 17490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  18. Dungey, Mardi & Luciani, Matteo & Veredas, David, 2012. "Ranking systemically important financial institutions," Working Papers 15473, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 21 Nov 2012.
  19. repec:dgr:uvatin:20100104 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic Risk: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Kyle Moore & Chen Zhou, 2012. "Identifying systemically important financial institutions: size and other determinants," DNB Working Papers 347, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  22. Allen, F. & Babus, A. & Carletti, E., 2010. "Financial Connections and Systemic Risk," Discussion Paper 2010-88S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  23. repec:dgr:uvatin:2010104 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Burls, Sarah, 2009. "Bank of England Systemic Risk Survey," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 49(3), pages 226-231.
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