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Systemic risk in the US: Interconnectedness as a circuit breaker

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  • Dungey, Mardi
  • Luciani, Matteo
  • Veredas, David

Abstract

We measure systemic risk via the interconnections between the risks facing both financial and real economy firms. SIFIs are ranked by building on the Google PageRank algorithm for finding closest connections. For a panel of over 500 US firms over 2003–2011 we find evidence that intervention programs (such as TARP) act as circuit breakers in crisis propagation. The curve formed by the plot of firm average systemic risk against its variability clearly separates financial firms into three groups: (i) the consistently systemically risky (ii) those displaying the potential to become risky and (iii) those of little concern for macro-prudential regulators.

Suggested Citation

  • Dungey, Mardi & Luciani, Matteo & Veredas, David, 2018. "Systemic risk in the US: Interconnectedness as a circuit breaker," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 305-315.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:71:y:2018:i:c:p:305-315
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.10.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dinesh Gajurel & Mardi Dungey & Wenying Yao & Nagaratnam Jeyasreedharan, 2020. "Jump Risk in the US Financial Sector," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 331-349, September.
    2. Chowdhury, Biplob & Dungey, Mardi & Kangogo, Moses & Sayeed, Mohammad Abu & Volkov, Vladimir, 2019. "The changing network of financial market linkages: The Asian experience," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 71-92.
    3. Dungey, Mardi & Flavin, Thomas J. & Lagoa-Varela, Dolores, 2020. "Are banking shocks contagious? Evidence from the eurozone," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Kevin Lee & Kian Ong & Kalvinder K. Shields, 2020. "Making Fiscal Adjustments Using Event Probability Forecasts in OECD Countries," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 294-313, September.
    5. Kolari, James W. & López-Iturriaga, Félix J. & Sanz, Ivan Pastor, 2020. "Measuring systemic risk in the U.S. Banking system," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 646-658.
    6. Grilli, Ruggero & Giri, Federico & Gallegati, Mauro, 2020. "Collateral rehypothecation, safe asset scarcity, and unconventional monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 633-645.
    7. Geraci, Marco Valerio & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2018. "Measuring Interconnectedness between Financial Institutions with Bayesian Time-Varying Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 1371-1390, June.
    8. Mardi Dungey & John Harvey & Pierre Siklos & Vladimir Volkov, 2017. "Signed spillover effects building on historical decompositions," CAMA Working Papers 2017-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Historical decomposition; DY spillover; Granger causality; Networks;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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