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Modeling different kinds of spatial dependence in stock returns

Author

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  • Matthias Arnold
  • Sebastian Stahlberg
  • Dominik Wied

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Abstract

The paper modifies previously suggested GMM approaches to spatial autoregression in stock returns. Our model incorporates global dependencies, dependencies inside industrial branches and local dependencies. As can be seen from Euro Stoxx 50 returns, this combination of spatial modeling and finance allows for superior risk forecasts in portfolio management. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Arnold & Sebastian Stahlberg & Dominik Wied, 2013. "Modeling different kinds of spatial dependence in stock returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 761-774, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:44:y:2013:i:2:p:761-774
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-011-0528-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1999. "A Generalized Moments Estimator for the Autoregressive Parameter in a Spatial Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 509-533, May.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2010. "Specification and estimation of spatial autoregressive models with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 53-67, July.
    4. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1973. "Regression Analysis when the Dependent Variable is Truncated Normal," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 997-1016, November.
    5. Eckel, Stefanie & Löffler, Gunter & Maurer, Alina & Schmidt, Volker, 2011. "Measuring the effects of geographical distance on stock market correlation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 237-247, March.
    6. James P. LeSage & R. Kelley Pace, 2008. "Spatial Econometric Modeling Of Origin-Destination Flows," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5), pages 941-967.
    7. Asgharian, Hossein & Hess, Wolfgang & Liu, Lu, 2013. "A spatial analysis of international stock market linkages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4738-4754.
    8. Lin, Xu & Lee, Lung-fei, 2010. "GMM estimation of spatial autoregressive models with unknown heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 34-52, July.
    9. Viviana Fernandez, 2011. "Spatial linkages in international financial markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 237-245.
    10. Harald Badinger & Peter Egger, 2011. "Estimation of higher‐order spatial autoregressive cross‐section models with heteroscedastic disturbances," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(1), pages 213-235, March.
    11. Kapoor, Mudit & Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2007. "Panel data models with spatially correlated error components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 97-130, September.
    12. Robert M. De Jong & James Davidson, 2000. "Consistency of Kernel Estimators of Heteroscedastic and Autocorrelated Covariance Matrices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 407-424, March.
    13. J. Barkley Rosser, 2009. "Introduction," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research on Complexity, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Lee, Lung-fei & Liu, Xiaodong, 2010. "Efficient Gmm Estimation Of High Order Spatial Autoregressive Models With Autoregressive Disturbances," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(01), pages 187-230, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Asgharian, Hossein & Hess, Wolfgang & Liu, Lu, 2013. "A spatial analysis of international stock market linkages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4738-4754.
    2. Leopoldo Catania & Anna Gloria Billé, 2017. "Dynamic spatial autoregressive models with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 1178-1196, September.
    3. Tam, Pui Sun, 2014. "A spatial–temporal analysis of East Asian equity market linkages," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 304-327.
    4. Blasques, Francisco & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Schaumburg, Julia, 2016. "Spillover dynamics for systemic risk measurement using spatial financial time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 211-223.
    5. Tobias Berens & Dominik Wied & Daniel Ziggel, 2014. "Automated Portfolio Optimization Based on a New Test for Structural Breaks," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 10(2), pages 243-264, April.
    6. Gong, Pu & Weng, Yingliang, 2016. "Value-at-Risk forecasts by a spatiotemporal model in Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 441(C), pages 173-191.
    7. Thilo A. Schmitt & Rudi Schäfer & Dominik Wied & Thomas Guhr, 2016. "Spatial dependence in stock returns: local normalization and VaR forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 1091-1109, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GMM estimation; Heteroscedasticity; Spatial dependence; Stock returns; Value at Risk; C13; C51; G12;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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