IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/fininn/v9y2023i1d10.1186_s40854-022-00437-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic spatiotemporal correlation coefficient based on adaptive weight

Author

Listed:
  • Guoli Mo

    (Guangxi University)

  • Chunzhi Tan

    (Guangxi University)

  • Weiguo Zhang

    (South China University of Technology)

  • Xuezeng Yu

    (Guangxi University)

Abstract

Risk management is an important aspect of financial research because correlations among financial data are essential in evaluating portfolio risk. Among various correlations, spatiotemporal correlations involve economic entity attributes and are interrelated in space and time. Such correlations have therefore drawn increasing attention in financial risk management. However, classical correlation measurements are typically based on either time series correlations or spatial dependence; they cannot be directly applied to financial data with spatiotemporal correlations. The spatiotemporal correlation coefficient model with adaptive weight proposed in this paper can (1) address the absolute quantity, dynamic quantity, and dynamic development of financial data and (2) be used for risk grading, financial risk evaluation, and portfolio management. To verify the validity and superiority of this model, cluster analysis results and portfolio performance are compared with a classical model with time series correlation or spatial correlation, respectively. Empirical findings show that the proposed coefficient is highly effective and convenient compared to others. Overall, our method provides a highly efficient financial risk management method with valuable implications for investors and financial institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Guoli Mo & Chunzhi Tan & Weiguo Zhang & Xuezeng Yu, 2023. "Dynamic spatiotemporal correlation coefficient based on adaptive weight," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-43, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:9:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-022-00437-3
    DOI: 10.1186/s40854-022-00437-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s40854-022-00437-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s40854-022-00437-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bertrand Candelon & Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin & Sessi Tokpavi, 2011. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A GMM Duration-Based Test," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 314-343, Spring.
    2. Gong, Pu & Weng, Yingliang, 2016. "Value-at-Risk forecasts by a spatiotemporal model in Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 441(C), pages 173-191.
    3. Baumöhl, Eduard & Kočenda, Evžen & Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš, 2018. "Networks of volatility spillovers among stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1555-1574.
    4. Brei, Michael & von Peter, Goetz, 2018. "The distance effect in banking and trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 116-137.
    5. Dominik Wied, 2013. "CUSUM-type testing for changing parameters in a spatial autoregressive model for stock returns," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 221-229, March.
    6. Pellerey, Franco & Laniado Rodas, Henry, 2012. "Portfolio selection through and extremality stochastic order," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws121812, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    7. Salvatore Dell’Erba & Emanuele Baldacci & Tigran Poghosyan, 2013. "Spatial spillovers in emerging market spreads," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 735-756, October.
    8. Ouyang, F.Y. & Zheng, B. & Jiang, X.F., 2014. "Spatial and temporal structures of four financial markets in Greater China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 402(C), pages 236-244.
    9. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Thomas Siller, 2013. "Measuring marginal risk contributions in credit portfolios," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 1915-1923, December.
    11. Huang, Wei-Qiang & Zhuang, Xin-Tian & Yao, Shuang & Uryasev, Stan, 2016. "A financial network perspective of financial institutions’ systemic risk contributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 183-196.
    12. Inci, A. Can & Li, H.C. & McCarthy, Joseph, 2011. "Financial contagion: A local correlation analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-25, January.
    13. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2008/224, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Bing Zhu & Roland Füss & Nico B. Rottke, 2013. "Spatial Linkages in Returns and Volatilities among U.S. Regional Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 41(1), pages 29-64, March.
    15. Mendes, Carlos F.O. & Beims, Marcus W., 2018. "Distance correlation detecting Lyapunov instabilities, noise-induced escape times and mixing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 721-730.
    16. Tam, Pui Sun, 2014. "A spatial–temporal analysis of East Asian equity market linkages," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 304-327.
    17. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    18. Asgharian, Hossein & Hess, Wolfgang & Liu, Lu, 2013. "A spatial analysis of international stock market linkages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4738-4754.
    19. Hlaing, Su Wah & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2018. "Financial crisis and financial policy reform: Crisis origins and policy dimensions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 224-243.
    20. Laniado, Henry & Lillo, Rosa E. & Pellerey, Franco & Romo, Juan, 2012. "Portfolio selection through an extremality stochastic order," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 1-9.
    21. Matthias Arnold & Sebastian Stahlberg & Dominik Wied, 2013. "Modeling different kinds of spatial dependence in stock returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 761-774, April.
    22. Waelti, Sébastien, 2015. "Financial crisis begets financial reform? The origin of the crisis matters," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 1-15.
    23. Bekiros, Stelios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sandoval Junior, Leonidas & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2017. "Information diffusion, cluster formation and entropy-based network dynamics in equity and commodity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(3), pages 945-961.
    24. Tamakoshi, Go & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2014. "Co-movements among major European exchange rates: A multivariate time-varying asymmetric approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 105-113.
    25. Harry Kelejian & George Tavlas & George Hondroyiannis, 2006. "A Spatial Modelling Approach to Contagion Among Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 423-441, December.
    26. He, Li-Jun & Ju, Xue-Wei & Zhang, Wei-Bo, 2018. "A fitness assignment strategy based on the grey and entropy parallel analysis and its application to MOEAAuthor-Name: Zhu, Guang-Yu," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(3), pages 813-828.
    27. F. Y. Ouyang & B. Zheng & X. F. Jiang, 2014. "Spatial and temporal structures of four financial markets in Greater China," Papers 1402.1046, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chong, Zhaohui & Wei, Xiaolin, 2023. "Exploring the spatial linkage network of peer-to-peer lending in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 630(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mo, Guoli & Tan, Chunzhi & Zhang, Weiguo & Liu, Fang, 2019. "International portfolio of stock indices with spatiotemporal correlations: Can investors still benefit from portfolio, when and where?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 168-183.
    2. Mo, Guoli & Zhang, Weiguo & Tan, Chunzhi & Liu, Xing, 2022. "Predicting the portfolio risk of high-dimensional international stock indices with dynamic spatial dependence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Gong, Pu & Weng, Yingliang, 2016. "Value-at-Risk forecasts by a spatiotemporal model in Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 441(C), pages 173-191.
    4. Gu, Huaying & Liu, Zhixue & Weng, Yingliang, 2017. "Time-varying correlations in global real estate markets: A multivariate GARCH with spatial effects approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 460-472.
    5. Blasques, Francisco & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Schaumburg, Julia, 2016. "Spillover dynamics for systemic risk measurement using spatial financial time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 211-223.
    6. Capasso, Salvatore & D'Uva, Marcella & Fiorelli, Cristiana & Napolitano, Oreste, 2023. "Cross-border Italian sovereign risk transmission in EMU countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Milcheva, Stanimira & Zhu, Bing, 2016. "Bank integration and co-movements across housing markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 148-171.
    8. Ou Bianling & Zhao Xin & Wang Mingxi, 2015. "Power of Moran’s I Test for Spatial Dependence in Panel Data Models with Time Varying Spatial Weights Matrices," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 3(5), pages 463-471, October.
    9. Capasso Salvatore & D’Uva Marcella, & Fiorelli Cristiana & Napolitano Oreste, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of Country-Specific Sovereign Risk on Financial and Banking System in EMU: the Role of Italy," CSEF Working Papers 654, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    10. Matteo Foglia & Eliana Angelini, 2019. "The Time-Spatial Dimension of Eurozone Banking Systemic Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-25, July.
    11. Heil, Thomas L.A. & Peter, Franziska J. & Prange, Philipp, 2022. "Measuring 25 years of global equity market co-movement using a time-varying spatial model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Asgharian, Hossein & Hess, Wolfgang & Liu, Lu, 2013. "A spatial analysis of international stock market linkages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4738-4754.
    13. Berens, Tobias & Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Wied, Dominik, 2015. "Testing for structural breaks in correlations: Does it improve Value-at-Risk forecasting?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 135-152.
    14. Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso & Nogueira, David Coito, 2014. "Análise VAR dos índices bolsistas SP500, FTSE100, PSI20, HSI e IBOVESPA [Integration of the indexes SP500, FTSE100, PSI20, HSI and IBOVESPA: A VAR approach]," MPRA Paper 62092, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Feb 2015.
    15. Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2012. "Margin Backtesting," Working Papers halshs-00746274, HAL.
    16. Begüm Yurteri Kösedağlı & A. Özlem Önder, 2021. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies: Are spatial effects important?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4653-4669, July.
    17. López-Díaz, María Concepción & López-Díaz, Miguel, 2013. "A note on the family of extremality stochastic orders," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 230-236.
    18. Lazar, Emese & Zhang, Ning, 2019. "Model risk of expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 74-93.
    19. Duc Khuong Nguyen & Thomas Walther, 2020. "Modeling and forecasting commodity market volatility with long‐term economic and financial variables," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 126-142, March.
    20. Yizhuo Zhang & Rui Chen & Ding Ma, 2020. "A Weighted and Directed Perspective of Global Stock Market Connectedness: A Variance Decomposition and GERGM Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-23, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spatiotemporal correlation; Absolute distance; Growth distance; Fluctuation distance; Adaptive weight;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:9:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-022-00437-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.