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Fire-sale spillovers and systemic risk

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Abstract

We construct a new systemic risk measure that quantifies vulnerability to fire-sale spillovers using detailed repo market data for broker-dealers and regulatory balance sheet data for U.S. bank holding companies. For broker-dealers, vulnerabilities in the repo market are driven by flight-to-quality episodes, when liquidity and leverage can change rapidly. We estimate that an exogenous 1 percent decline in the price of all assets financed with repos leads to losses owing to fire-sale spillovers of 8 percent of total broker-dealer equity on average and over 12 percent during the financial crisis. For bank holding companies, vulnerabilities to fire sales are equally sizable but build up slowly over time. Our measure signals buildup of systemic risk starting in the early 2000s, ahead of many other measures. Our measure also predicts low quantiles of macroeconomic outcomes above and beyond other existing measures, especially at longer horizons.

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  • Duarte, Fernando M. & Eisenbach, Thomas M., 2013. "Fire-sale spillovers and systemic risk," Staff Reports 645, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Feb 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:645
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    Cited by:

    1. Aikman, David & Kiley, Michael & Lee, Seung Jung & Palumbo, Michael G. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2017. "Mapping heat in the U.S. financial system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 36-64.
    2. Robert McDonald & Anna Paulson, 2015. "AIG in Hindsight," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 81-106, Spring.
    3. Daniel Grigat & Fabio Caccioli, 2017. "Reverse stress testing interbank networks," Papers 1702.08744, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.
    4. Adrian, Tobias & Liang, J. Nellie, 2014. "Monetary policy, financial conditions, and financial stability," Staff Reports 690, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Dec 2016.
    5. Fabio Caccioli & Paolo Barucca & Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2017. "Network models of financial systemic risk: A review," Papers 1710.11512, arXiv.org.
    6. Jieshuang He, 2016. "Endogenous Bank Networks and Contagion," Caepr Working Papers 2016-005 Classification-D, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    7. Sebastian Poledna & Seraf'in Mart'inez-Jaramillo & Fabio Caccioli & Stefan Thurner, 2018. "Quantification of systemic risk from overlapping portfolios in the financial system," Papers 1802.00311, arXiv.org.
    8. Abbassi, Puriya & Brownlees, Christian & Hans, Christina & Podlich, Natalia, 2017. "Credit risk interconnectedness: What does the market really know?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-12.
    9. repec:eee:joecas:v:16:y:2017:i:c:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Riedler, Jesper & Brueckbauer, Frank, 2017. "Evaluating regulation within an artificial financial system: A framework and its application to the liquidity coverage ratio regulation," ZEW Discussion Papers 17-022, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    11. Calimani, Susanna & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Żochowski, Dawid, 2017. "Simulating fire-sales in a banking and shadow banking system," ESRB Working Paper Series 46, European Systemic Risk Board.
    12. Giulia Poce & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Andrea Zaccaria & Giuditta Baldacci & Marco Polito & Mariangela Rizzo & Silvia Sabatini, 2016. "What do central counterparties default funds really cover? A network-based stress test answer," Papers 1611.03782, arXiv.org.
    13. Paul Glasserman & H. Peyton Young, 2016. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(3), pages 779-831, September.
    14. Fischer, Stanley, 2016. "Is There a Liquidity Problem Post-Crisis? : a speech at "Do We Have a Liquidity Problem Post-Crisis?", a conference sponsored by the Initiative on Business and Public Policy at the Brookings," Speech 921, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Weerachart T. Kilenthong & Robert M. Townsend, 2016. "A Market Based Solution for Fire Sales and Other Pecuniary Externalities," NBER Working Papers 22056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Robert McKeown, 2017. "How vulnerable is the Canadian banking system to fire-sales?," Working Papers 1381, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    17. Matteo Serri & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini, 2016. "How the interbank market becomes systemically dangerous: an agent-based network model of financial distress propagation," Papers 1611.04311, arXiv.org.
    18. Lillo, Fabrizio & Pirino, Davide, 2015. "The impact of systemic and illiquidity risk on financing with risky collateral," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 180-202.
    19. Paul Glasserman, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. Levy-Carciente, Sary & Kenett, Dror Y. & Avakian, Adam & Stanley, H. Eugene & Havlin, Shlomo, 2015. "Dynamical macroprudential stress testing using network theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 164-181.
    21. Fischer, Stanley, 2015. "Financial Stability and Shadow Banks: What We Don't Know Could Hurt Us: a speech at the "Financial Stability: Policy Analysis and Data Needs" 2015 Financial Stability Conference sponsored by," Speech 885, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Domenico Di Gangi & Fabrizio Lillo & Davide Pirino, 2015. "Assessing systemic risk due to fire sales spillover through maximum entropy network reconstruction," Papers 1509.00607, arXiv.org.
    23. Laurent Clerc & Alberto Giovannini & Sam Langfield & Tuomas Peltonen & Richard Portes & Martin Scheicher, 2016. "Indirect contagion: the policy problem," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 09, European Systemic Risk Board.
    24. Adrian, Tobias, 2015. "Discussion of “Systemic Risk and the Solvency-Liquidity Nexus of Banks”," Staff Reports 722, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    systemic risk; fire-sale externalities; leverage; linkage; concentration; bank holding company; tri-party repo market;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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