IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/645.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fire-sale spillovers and systemic risk

Author

Abstract

We reveal and track over time the factors making the financial system vulnerable to fire sales by constructing an index of aggregate vulnerability. The index starts increasing in 2004, before any other major systemic risk measure, more than doubling by 2008. The fire-sale-specific factors of delevering speed and concentration of illiquid assets account for the majority of this increase. Individual banks? contributions to aggregate vulnerability are an excellent five-year-ahead predictor of SRISK, one of the most prominent systemic risk measures. Had our estimates been available at the time, they would have been a useful early indicator of when and where vulnerabilities were building up.vulnerabilities to fire sales are equally sizable but build up slowly over time. Our measure signals buildup of systemic risk starting in the early 2000s, ahead of many other measures. Our measure also predicts low quantiles of macroeconomic outcomes above and beyond other existing measures, especially at longer horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando M. Duarte & Thomas M. Eisenbach, 2013. "Fire-sale spillovers and systemic risk," Staff Reports 645, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:645
    Note: Revised December 2019.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr645.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr645.html
    File Function: Summary
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    2. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    3. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    4. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.
    5. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    6. Dimitrios Bisias & Mark Flood & Andrew W. Lo & Stavros Valavanis, 2012. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Analytics," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 255-296, October.
    7. Ellul, Andrew & Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Lundblad, Christian T., 2011. "Regulatory pressure and fire sales in the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 596-620, September.
    8. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2011. "Financial Intermediary Balance Sheet Management," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 289-307, December.
    9. Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
    10. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    11. Steven Drucker & Manju Puri, 2009. "On Loan Sales, Loan Contracting, and Lending Relationships," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2635-2672, July.
    12. Adam Copeland & Antoine Martin & Michael Walker, 2014. "Repo Runs: Evidence from the Tri-Party Repo Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2343-2380, December.
    13. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
    14. Allaudeen Hameed & Wenjin Kang & S. Viswanathan, 2010. "Stock Market Declines and Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 257-293, February.
    15. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    16. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    17. Ingo Fender & Patrick McGuire, 2010. "Bank structure, funding risk and the transmission of shocks across countries: concepts and measurement," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christian Kubitza, 2021. "Tackling the Volatility Paradox: Spillover Persistence and Systemic Risk," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 079, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    2. Greenwood, Robin & Landier, Augustin & Thesmar, David, 2015. "Vulnerable banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 471-485.
    3. Yun, Tae-Sub & Jeong, Deokjong & Park, Sunyoung, 2019. "“Too central to fail” systemic risk measure using PageRank algorithm," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 251-272.
    4. van de Leur, Michiel C.W. & Lucas, André & Seeger, Norman J., 2017. "Network, market, and book-based systemic risk rankings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 84-90.
    5. Sergey Chernenko & Adi Sunderam, 2016. "Liquidity Transformation in Asset Management: Evidence from the Cash Holdings of Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 22391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kanas, Angelos & Molyneux, Philip, 2020. "Do measures of systemic risk predict U.S. corporate bond default rates?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Thomas A. Maurer & Thuy-Duong Tô & Ngoc-Khanh Tran, 2019. "Pricing Risks Across Currency Denominations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(11), pages 5308-5336, November.
    8. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    9. Moratis, Georgios & Sakellaris, Plutarchos, 2021. "Measuring the systemic importance of banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Irresberger, Felix & Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Gabrysch, Janet & Gabrysch, Sandra, 2018. "Liquidity tail risk and credit default swap spreads," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(3), pages 1137-1153.
    11. Chowdhury, Biplob & Dungey, Mardi & Kangogo, Moses & Sayeed, Mohammad Abu & Volkov, Vladimir, 2019. "The changing network of financial market linkages: The Asian experience," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 71-92.
    12. Chernenko, Sergey & Sunderam, Adi, 2016. "Liquidity transformation in asset management: Evidence from the cash holdings of mutual funds," ESRB Working Paper Series 23, European Systemic Risk Board.
    13. Xisong Jin, 2018. "How much does book value data tell us about systemic risk and its interactions with the macroeconomy? A Luxembourg empirical evaluation," BCL working papers 118, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    14. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the euro area banking sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 736-758.
    15. Chernenko, Sergey & Sunderam, Adi, 2020. "Do fire sales create externalities?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 602-628.
    16. Bertrand Candelon & Laurent Ferrara & Marc Joëts, 2021. "Global financial interconnectedness: a non-linear assessment of the uncertainty channel," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(25), pages 2865-2887, May.
    17. Abbassi, Puriya & Fecht, Falko & Tischer, Johannes, 2015. "The intraday interest rate: What's that?," Discussion Papers 24/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Varotto, Simone & Zhao, Lei, 2018. "Systemic risk and bank size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 45-70.
    19. Gang-Jin Wang & Chi Xie & Kaijian He & H. Eugene Stanley, 2017. "Extreme risk spillover network: application to financial institutions," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 1417-1433, September.
    20. Mikhail Stolbov & Maria Shchepeleva, 2018. "Systemic risk in Europe: deciphering leading measures, common patterns and real effects," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 49-91, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    systemic risk; concentration; leverage; linkage; fire-sale externalities; bank holding company; tri-party repo market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:645. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.