IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v59y2015icp164-181.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamical macroprudential stress testing using network theory

Author

Listed:
  • Levy-Carciente, Sary
  • Kenett, Dror Y.
  • Avakian, Adam
  • Stanley, H. Eugene
  • Havlin, Shlomo

Abstract

The increasing frequency and scope of financial crises have made global financial stability one of the major concerns of economic policy and decision makers. This has led to the understanding that financial and banking supervision has to be thought of as a systemic task, focusing on the interdependent relations among the institutions. Using network theory, we develop a dynamic model that uses a bipartite network of banks and their assets to analyze the system’s sensitivity to external shocks in individual asset classes and to evaluate the presence of features underlying the system that could lead to contagion. As a case study, we apply the model to stress test the Venezuelan banking system from 1998 to 2013. The introduced model was able to capture monthly changes in the structure of the system and the sensitivity of bank portfolios to different external shock scenarios and to identify systemic vulnerabilities and their time evolution. The model provides new tools for policy makers and supervision agencies to use for macroprudential dynamical stress testing.

Suggested Citation

  • Levy-Carciente, Sary & Kenett, Dror Y. & Avakian, Adam & Stanley, H. Eugene & Havlin, Shlomo, 2015. "Dynamical macroprudential stress testing using network theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 164-181.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:59:y:2015:i:c:p:164-181
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.05.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426615001454
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Craig, Ben & von Peter, Goetz, 2014. "Interbank tiering and money center banks," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 322-347.
    2. Edson Bastos e Santos & Rama Cont, 2010. "The Brazilian Interbank Network Structure and Systemic Risk," Working Papers Series 219, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Drehmann, Mathias & Tarashev, Nikola, 2013. "Measuring the systemic importance of interconnected banks," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 586-607.
    4. Hajime Inaoka & Takuto Ninomiya & Ken Taniguchi & Tokiko Shimizu & Hideki Takayasu, 2004. "Fractal Network derived from banking transaction -- An analysis of network structures formed by financial institutions --," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 04-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    5. Arinaminpathy, Nimalan & Kapadia, Sujit & May, Robert, 2012. "Size and complexity in model financial systems," Bank of England working papers 465, Bank of England.
    6. Greenwood, Robin & Landier, Augustin & Thesmar, David, 2015. "Vulnerable banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 471-485.
    7. Caccioli, Fabio & Shrestha, Munik & Moore, Cristopher & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2014. "Stability analysis of financial contagion due to overlapping portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 233-245.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2015. "Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 564-608, February.
    9. Soramäki, Kimmo & Bech, Morten L. & Arnold, Jeffrey & Glass, Robert J. & Beyeler, Walter E., 2007. "The topology of interbank payment flows," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 317-333.
    10. Xuqing Huang & Irena Vodenska & Shlomo Havlin & H. Eugene Stanley, 2012. "Cascading Failures in Bi-partite Graphs: Model for Systemic Risk Propagation," Papers 1210.4973, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2013.
    11. repec:hrv:faseco:33077925 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Takatoshi Ito, 2011. "Reform of Financial Supervisory and Regulatory Regimes: What has Been Achieved and What is Still Missing," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 553-569, December.
    13. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
    14. Stephen A. Rhoades, 1993. "The Herfindahl-Hirschman index," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue mar, pages 188-189.
    15. Thomas Breuer & Martin Jandacka & Klaus Rheinberger & Martin Summer, 2009. "How to Find Plausible, Severe and Useful Stress Scenarios," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 205-224, September.
    16. Helmut Elsinger, 2009. "Financial Networks, Cross Holdings, and Limited Liability," Working Papers 156, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    17. Richard Bookstaber & Mark Paddrik & Brian Tivnan, 2018. "An agent-based model for financial vulnerability," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 433-466, July.
    18. Wei Li & Dror Y. Kenett & Kazuko Yamasaki & H. Eugene Stanley & Shlomo Havlin, 2014. "Ranking the Economic Importance of Countries and Industries," Papers 1408.0443, arXiv.org.
    19. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
    20. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2007. "Network models and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2033-2060, June.
    21. Fernando M. Duarte & Thomas M. Eisenbach, 2013. "Fire-sale spillovers and systemic risk," Staff Reports 645, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Feb 2015.
    22. Rama Cont & Amal Moussa & Edson B Santos, 2013. "Network structure and systemic risk in banking systems," Post-Print hal-00912018, HAL.
    23. L. Bargigli & G. di Iasio & L. Infante & F. Lillo & F. Pierobon, 2015. "The multiplex structure of interbank networks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 673-691, April.
    24. Vasileios Madouros & Andrew G. Haldane, 2012. "The dog and the frisbee," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 109-159.
    25. Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2011. "Fire Sales in Finance and Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 29-48, Winter.
    26. Furfine, Craig H, 2003. " Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-128, February.
    27. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2015. "How likely is contagion in financial networks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 383-399.
    28. Tumminello, Michele & Lillo, Fabrizio & Mantegna, Rosario N., 2010. "Correlation, hierarchies, and networks in financial markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 40-58, July.
    29. Martin Summer, 2013. "Financial Contagion and Network Analysis," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 277-297, November.
    30. Andrea Aguiar & Rick Bookstaber & Thomas Wipf, 2014. "A Map of Funding Durability and Risk," Working Papers 14-03, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    31. Hamed Amini & Rama Cont & Andreea Minca, 2012. "Stress testing the resilience of financial networks," Post-Print hal-00801538, HAL.
    32. Iori, Giulia & De Masi, Giulia & Precup, Ovidiu Vasile & Gabbi, Giampaolo & Caldarelli, Guido, 2008. "A network analysis of the Italian overnight money market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 259-278, January.
    33. Galbiati, Marco & Soramäki, Kimmo, 2012. "Clearing networks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 609-626.
    34. Freddy Hernán Cepeda López, 2008. "La topología de redes como herramienta de seguimiento en el Sistema de Pagos de Alto Valor en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 513, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    35. Frederick T. Furlong, 1998. "New view of bank consolidation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jul24.
    36. Mark D. Flood & George G. Korenko, 2015. "Systematic scenario selection: stress testing and the nature of uncertainty," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 43-59, January.
    37. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Hyun Song Shin & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2005. "Liquidity Risk and Contagion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 556-566, 04/05.
    38. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Using Market Information for Banking System Risk Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    39. Michael Boss & Helmut Elsinger & Martin Summer & Stefan Thurner, 2004. "Network topology of the interbank market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 677-684.
    40. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Optimal Financial Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1245-1284, August.
    41. Nan Chen & Paul Glasserman & Behzad Nouri & Markus Pelger, 2013. "CoCos, Bail-In, and Tail Risk," Working Papers 13-04, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    42. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2013. "The Network Origins of Large Economic Downturns," NBER Working Papers 19230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andre R. Neveu, 2018. "A survey of network-based analysis and systemic risk measurement," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 241-281, July.
    2. Chuang, Hongwei, 2016. "Brokers’ financial network and stock return," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 172-183.
    3. Ramadiah, Amanah & Caccioli, Fabio & Fricke, Daniel, 2018. "Reconstructing and stress testing credit networks," ESRB Working Paper Series 84, European Systemic Risk Board.
    4. Matthias Raddant & Dror Y. Kenett, 2016. "Interconnectedness in the Global Financial Market," Working Papers 16-09, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    5. Huang, Wei-Qiang & Zhuang, Xin-Tian & Yao, Shuang & Uryasev, Stan, 2016. "A financial network perspective of financial institutions’ systemic risk contributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 183-196.
    6. Mika J. Straka & Guido Caldarelli & Tiziano Squartini & Fabio Saracco, 2017. "From Ecology to Finance (and Back?): Recent Advancements in the Analysis of Bipartite Networks," Papers 1710.10143, arXiv.org.
    7. de Carvalho, Pablo Jose Campos & Gupta, Aparna, 2018. "A network approach to unravel asset price comovement using minimal dependence structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 119-132.
    8. Yevgeny Mugerman & Joseph Tzur & Arie Jacobi, 2018. "Mortgage Loans and Bank Risk Taking: Finding the Risk “Sweet Spot”," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(04), pages 1-30, December.
    9. Wang, Gang-Jin & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Lin, Min & Xie, Chi & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2018. "Interconnectedness and systemic risk of China's financial institutions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-18.
    10. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial networks; Interdependence; Contagion; Banking system; Venezuela; macroprudential;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • N26 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:59:y:2015:i:c:p:164-181. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.