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Interbank Contagion: An Agent-based Model Approach to Endogenously Formed Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Anqi Liu

    (Stevens Institute of Technology)

  • Mark Paddrik

    (Office of Financial Research)

  • Steve Yang

    (Stevens Institute of Technology)

  • Xingjia Zhang

    (Stevens Institute of Technology)

Abstract

The potential impact of interconnected financial institutions on interbank financial systems is a financial stability concern for central banks and regulators. A number of algorithms/methods have been developed to extrapolate latent interbank risk exposures. However, most use highly stylized network models and reconstruction methods with global optimality lending allocation approaches such as maximizing entropy or minimizing costs. This paper argues that U.S. bank lending and borrowing decisions are largely suboptimal and performance-driven. We present an agent-based model to endogenously reconstruct interbank networks based on 6,600 banks' decision rules and behaviors reflected in quarterly balance sheets. The model formulation reproduces dynamics similar to those of the 2007-09 financial crisis and shows how bank losses and failures arise from network contagion and lending market illiquidity. When calibrated to post-crisis data from 2011-14, the model shows the banking system has reduced its likelihood of bank failures through network contagion and illiquidity, given a similar stress scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Anqi Liu & Mark Paddrik & Steve Yang & Xingjia Zhang, 2016. "Interbank Contagion: An Agent-based Model Approach to Endogenously Formed Networks," Working Papers 16-14, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
  • Handle: RePEc:ofr:wpaper:16-14
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    3. Riccardo Doyle, 2020. "Using Network Interbank Contagion in Bank Default Prediction," Papers 2005.12619, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    4. Morteza Alaeddini & Julie Dugdale & Paul Reaidy & Philippe Madiès & Önder Gürcan, 2021. "An Agent-Oriented, Blockchain-Based Design of the Interbank Money Market Trading System," Post-Print hal-03447648, HAL.
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    6. Chien-Hsiang Yeh, 2022. "Uniqueness of Equilibria in Interactive Networks," Papers 2206.00158, arXiv.org.
    7. Li, Jingyu & Yao, Yanzhen & Li, Jianping & Zhu, Xiaoqian, 2019. "Network-based estimation of systematic and idiosyncratic contagion: The case of Chinese financial institutions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Yan, Chun & Ding, Yi & Liu, Wei & Liu, Xinhong & Liu, Jiahui, 2023. "Multilayer interbank networks and systemic risk propagation: Evidence from China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 628(C).
    9. Lartey, Theophilus & James, Gregory A. & Danso, Albert, 2021. "Interbank funding, bank risk exposure and performance in the UK: A three-stage network DEA approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Reyns, Ariane, 2024. "What drives businesses to transact with complementary currencies?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    11. Pierre Nkou Mananga & Shiqiang Lin & Hairui Zhang, 2023. "A network approach to interbank contagion risk in South Africa," Working Papers 11052, South African Reserve Bank.
    12. Doumpos, Michalis & Zopounidis, Constantin & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Platanakis, Emmanouil & Zhang, Wenke, 2023. "Operational research and artificial intelligence methods in banking," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(1), pages 1-16.
    13. Wang, Haibo, 2024. "Assessing resilience to systemic risks across interbank credit networks using linkage-leverage analysis: Evidence from Japan," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
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    15. Bardoscia, Marco & Carro, Adrian & Hinterschweiger, Marc & Napoletano, Mauro & Popoyan, Lilit & Roventini, Andrea & Uluc, Arzu, 2024. "The impact of prudential regulations on the UK housing market and economy: insights from an agent-based model," Bank of England working papers 1066, Bank of England.
    16. Jiajia, Liu & Kun, Guo & Fangcheng, Tang & Yahan, Wang & Shouyang, Wang, 2023. "The effect of the disposal of non-performing loans on interbank liquidity risk in China: A cash flow network-based analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 105-119.
    17. Financial Stability Committee, Task Force on cross-border Spillover Effects of macroprudential measures & Kok, Christoffer & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2020. "Cross-border spillover effects of macroprudential policies: a conceptual framework," Occasional Paper Series 242, European Central Bank.
    18. Ladley, Daniel & Rousseau, Peter L., 2023. "Panic and propagation in 1873: A network analytic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    19. Chen, Yi-Pei & Chen, Yu-Lun & Chiang, Shu-Hen & Mo, Wan-Shin, 2023. "Determinants of connectedness in financial institutions: Evidence from Taiwan," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    20. Hałaj, Grzegorz, 2018. "Agent-based model of system-wide implications of funding risk," Working Paper Series 2121, European Central Bank.
    21. Zhang, Ailian & Wang, Shuyao & Liu, Bai & Fu, Jingyuan, 2020. "How government regulation of interbank financing impacts risk for Chinese commercial banks," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    22. Adão, Luiz F.S. & Silveira, Douglas & Ely, Regis A. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2022. "The impacts of interest rates on banks’ loan portfolio risk-taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interbank lending market; agent-based simulation; contagion risk; network topology; financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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