Filling in the Blanks: Network Structure and Interbank Contagion
The network pattern of financial linkages is important in many areas of banking and finance. Yet bilateral linkages are often unobserved, and maximum entropy serves as the leading method for estimating counterparty exposures. This paper proposes an efficient alternative that combines information-theoretic arguments with economic incentives to produce more realistic interbank networks that preserve important characteristics of the original interbank market. The method loads the most probable links with the largest exposures consistent with the total lending and borrowing of each bank, yielding networks with minimum density. When used in a stress-testing context, the minimum density solution overestimates contagion, whereas maximum entropy underestimates it. Using the two benchmarks side by side defines a useful range that bounds the cost of systemic stress present in the true interbank network when counterparty exposures are unknown.
|Date of creation:||2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Weisbuch, Gerard & Kirman, Alan & Herreiner, Dorothea, 2000.
"Market Organisation and Trading Relationships,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(463), pages 411-36, April.
- Thomas J. Sargent & LarsPeter Hansen, 2001. "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 60-66, May.
- Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
- Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2007.
"Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
641, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2011. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1114-1127, May.
- Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2007.
"Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes,"
NBER Working Papers
12927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487, 05.
- Rubinstein, Yona & Helpman, Elhanan & Melitz, Marc, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," Scholarly Articles 3228230, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Iori, Giulia & De Masi, Giulia & Precup, Ovidiu Vasile & Gabbi, Giampaolo & Caldarelli, Guido, 2008.
"A network analysis of the Italian overnight money market,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 259-278, January.
- Iori, G. & Masi, G. D. & Precup, O. V. & Gabbi, G. & Caldarelli, G., 2005. "A network analysis of the Italian oversight money market," Working Papers 05/05, Department of Economics, City University London.
- Kartik Anand & Prasanna Gai & Matteo Marsili, 2011.
"Rollover risk, network structure and systemic financial crises,"
SFB 649 Discussion Papers
SFB649DP2011-052, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & Marsili, Matteo, 2012. "Rollover risk, network structure and systemic financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1088-1100.
- Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2008.
"Network models and financial stability,"
Bank of England working papers
346, Bank of England.
- Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004.
"Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
- Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002. "Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Ben R. Craig & Goetz von Peter, 2009.
"Interbank tiering and money center banks,"
0912, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Craig, Ben R. & von Peter, Goetz, 2010. "Interbank tiering and money center banks," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2010,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Ben Craig & Goetz von Peter, 2010. "Interbank tiering and money center banks," BIS Working Papers 322, Bank for International Settlements.
- Ben R. Craig & Goetz von Peter, 2010. "Interbank tiering and money center banks," Working Paper 1014, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Tomasz Strzalecki, 2011.
"Axiomatic Foundations of Multiplier Preferences,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
786969000000000126, David K. Levine.
- Morten L. Bech & Enghin Atalay, 2008.
"The topology of the federal funds market,"
354, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Bech, Morten L. & Atalay, Enghin, 2010. "The topology of the federal funds market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(22), pages 5223-5246.
- Markose, Sheri & Giansante, Simone & Shaghaghi, Ali Rais, 2012. "‘Too interconnected to fail’ financial network of US CDS market: Topological fragility and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 627-646.
- Shang-Jin Wei & Jaebin Ahn & Amit K. Khandelwal, 2010.
"The Role of Intermediaries in Facilitating Trade,"
- Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco J. & Martins, Nuno C., 2009. "Lending relationships in the interbank market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 24-48, January.
- George Sheldon & Martin Maurer, 1998. "Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 685-704, December.
- Iacopo Mastromatteo & Elia Zarinelli & Matteo Marsili, 2011. "Reconstruction of financial network for robust estimation of systemic risk," Papers 1109.6210, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2012.
- Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
- Memmel, Christoph & Sachs, Angelika, 2013.
"Contagion in the interbank market and its determinants,"
Journal of Financial Stability,
Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 46-54.
- Memmel, Christoph & Sachs, Angelika, 2011. "Contagion in the interbank market and its determinants," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
- Mattsson, Lars-Goran & Weibull, Jorgen W., 2002. "Probabilistic choice and procedurally bounded rationality," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 61-78, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:14-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.