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Reconstruction of financial network for robust estimation of systemic risk

Author

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  • Iacopo Mastromatteo
  • Elia Zarinelli
  • Matteo Marsili

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as Maximum Entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures, and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks.

Suggested Citation

  • Iacopo Mastromatteo & Elia Zarinelli & Matteo Marsili, 2011. "Reconstruction of financial network for robust estimation of systemic risk," Papers 1109.6210, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1109.6210
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1109.6210
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Furfine, Craig H, 2003. " Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-128, February.
    2. Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2011. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1114-1127, May.
    3. Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2007. "Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Contagion Risk in the Belgian Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 123-171, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Silva, Thiago Christiano & de Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2016. "Network structure analysis of the Brazilian interbank market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 130-152.
    2. Giulia Poce & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Andrea Zaccaria & Giuditta Baldacci & Marco Polito & Mariangela Rizzo & Silvia Sabatini, 2016. "What do central counterparties default funds really cover? A network-based stress test answer," Papers 1611.03782, arXiv.org.
    3. Domenico Di Gangi & Fabrizio Lillo & Davide Pirino, 2015. "Assessing systemic risk due to fire sales spillover through maximum entropy network reconstruction," Papers 1509.00607, arXiv.org.
    4. repec:eee:phsmap:v:494:y:2018:i:c:p:367-379 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Leonardo Bargigli & Giovanni di Iasio & Luigi Infante & Fabrizio Lillo & Federico Pierobon, 2015. "Interbank markets and multiplex networks: centrality measures and statistical null models," Papers 1501.05751, arXiv.org.
    6. Leonardo Bargigli, 2013. "Statistical Equilibrium Models for Sparse Economic Networks," Working Papers - Economics wp2013_25.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    7. Kartik Anand & Ben Craig & Goetz von Peter, 2015. "Filling in the blanks: network structure and interbank contagion," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 625-636, April.
    8. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    9. Giulio Cimini & Tiziano Squartini & Nicol`o Musmeci & Michelangelo Puliga & Andrea Gabrielli & Diego Garlaschelli & Stefano Battiston & Guido Caldarelli, 2014. "Reconstructing topological properties of complex networks using the fitness model," Papers 1410.2121, arXiv.org.
    10. M. Andrecut, 2017. "Systemic Risk, Maximum Entropy and Interbank Contagion," Papers 1703.04549, arXiv.org.
    11. Bargigli, Leonardo & Gallegati, Mauro & Riccetti, Luca & Russo, Alberto, 2014. "Network analysis and calibration of the “leveraged network-based financial accelerator”," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 109-125.

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