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Recovering from bond market distress: Good luck and good policy

  • Wälti, Sébastien
  • Weder, Ghislaine

This paper focuses on the resolution of bond market crises. Episodes of bond market distress are identified using secondary market sovereign bond spreads. Duration models are used to assess the role of the global environment, domestic policy, IMF programs and political events in explaining the length of distress episodes. We find a rich set of interactions between favourable external conditions, sound macroeconomic policies and the presence of an IMF program which contribute to shorter bond market crises.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Emerging Markets Review.

Volume (Year): 10 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 36-50

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:10:y:2009:i:1:p:36-50
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  1. Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2003. "Empirical determinants of emerging market economies' sovereign bond spreads," Bank of England working papers 205, Bank of England.
  2. Diego Saravia & Ashoka Mody, 2003. "Catalyzing Capital Flows: Do IMF-Supported Programs Work As Commitment Devices?," IMF Working Papers 03/100, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Catalytic Finance: When Does It Work?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm339, Yale School of Management.
  4. Pozo, Susan & Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina, 2003. "Statistical distributions and the identification of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 591-609, August.
  5. Steven B. Kamin & K von Kleist, 1999. "The evolution and determinants of emerging markets credit spreads in the 1990s," BIS Working Papers 68, Bank for International Settlements.
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  8. Steven B. Kamin & Karsten von Kleist, 1999. "The evolution and determinants of emerging market credit spreads in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 653, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Hayo, Bernd & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "IMF-related news and emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1126-1142, November.
  10. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2004. "Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, January.
  11. Dailami, Mansoor & Masson, Paul R. & Padou, Jean Jose, 2008. "Global monetary conditions versus country-specific factors in the determination of emerging market debt spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1325-1336, December.
  12. Gelos, R. Gaston & Sahay, Ratna & Sandleris, Guido, 2011. "Sovereign borrowing by developing countries: What determines market access?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 243-254, March.
  13. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2000. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 107-134 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Evrensel, Ayse Y., 2002. "Effectiveness of IMF-supported stabilization programs in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 565-587, October.
  16. Patrick McGuire & Martijn A Schrijvers, 2003. "Common factors in emerging market spreads," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  17. Steven Phillips & Timothy D. Lane, 2000. "Does IMF Financing Result in Moral Hazard?," IMF Working Papers 00/168, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Vivian Z. Yue & Samir Jahjah, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/210, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  20. L. Zanforlin, 2007. "Re-Accessing International Capital Markets After Financial Crises: Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 07/136, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Min, Hong-Ghi & Lee, Duk-Hee & Nam, Changi & Park, Myeong-Cheol & Nam, Sang-Ho, 2003. "Determinants of emerging-market bond spreads: Cross-country evidence," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 271-286, December.
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