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Dynamic expectation formation in the foreign exchange market

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  • ter Ellen, Saskia
  • Verschoor, Willem F.C.
  • Zwinkels, Remco C.J.

Abstract

This paper investigates the time-varying nature of expectation formation rules for institutional investors in the foreign exchange market. Using a dataset of survey expectations for four exchange rates, we first distinguish three different general rules. We find a momentum rule, a fundamental rule, and a rule that takes advantage of interest differentials between countries. Apart from heterogeneity in expectation formation rules, we show that the rules are time-varying conditional on a number of different factors, such as the sign of the most recent return, the forecast horizon, the distance to the PPP rate, and the extent to which the rule produces forecast errors vis-à-vis the market exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • ter Ellen, Saskia & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Dynamic expectation formation in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 75-97.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:37:y:2013:i:c:p:75-97
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.06.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2014. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-17, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2017. "The adaptiveness in stock markets: testing the stylized facts in the DAX 30," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1071-1094, November.
    3. Lansing, Kevin J. & Ma, Jun, 2017. "Explaining exchange rate anomalies in a model with Taylor-rule fundamentals and consistent expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 62-87.
    4. Gyntelberg, Jacob & Loretan, Mico & Subhanij, Tientip, 2018. "Private information, capital flows, and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 40-55.
    5. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Fabio Filipozzi & Karsten Staehr, 2015. "Uncovered Interest Parity in Central and Eastern Europe: Sample, Expectations and Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2015014, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    6. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2018. "Can the interaction between a single long-term attractor and heterogeneous trading explain exchange rate behaviour? A nonlinear econometric investigation," MPRA Paper 83894, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. João Barata R. B. Barroso, 2014. "Behavioral Models of the Foreign Exchange Market: is there any empirical content?," Working Papers Series 364, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Dick, Christian D. & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2015. "Exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 235-256.
    9. Chiarella, Carl & ter Ellen, Saskia & He, Xue-Zhong & Wu, Eliza, 2015. "Fear or fundamentals? Heterogeneous beliefs in the European sovereign CDS market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 19-34.
    10. repec:bla:reviec:v:25:y:2017:i:4:p:695-710 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Fabio Filipozzi & Karsten Staehr, 2017. "Uncovered interest parity in Central and Eastern Europe: Expectations and structural breaks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 695-710, September.
    12. Zheng, Min & Liu, Ruipeng & Li, Youwei, 2018. "Long memory in financial markets: A heterogeneous agent model perspective," MPRA Paper 84886, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Zhentao Shi & Huanhuan Zheng, 2018. "Structural Estimation of Behavioral Heterogeneity," Papers 1802.03735, arXiv.org.
    14. repec:eee:dyncon:v:85:y:2017:i:c:p:21-45 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Michael Frenkel & Matthias Mauch & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2017. "Forecaster Rationality and Expectation Formation in Foreign Exchange Markets: Do Emerging Markets Differ from Industrialized Economies?," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 17-04, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    16. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2017. "Estimation of financial agent-based models with simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 21-45.
    17. Chen, Zhenxi, 2014. "Estimating heterogeneous agents behavior with different investment horizons in stock markets," FinMaP-Working Papers 5, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    18. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? evidence from survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-19, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    19. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    20. Dick, Christian D. & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Individual exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-062, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectation formation; Foreign exchange; Heterogeneity; Market anomalies; Survey data;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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