IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/9092.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Animal Spirits in the Euro Area Sovereign CDS Market

Author

Listed:
  • Blommestein, Hans J.
  • Eijffinger, Sylvester C W
  • Qian, Zongxin

Abstract

We study the determinants for the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads of five Euro-area countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain) in the post-Lehman-Brothers period. We find that there are regime switches in the process of sovereign CDS spread changes. We consider three alternative empirical hypotheses associated with regime switches. Under the first hypothesis, there are rational sunspot equilibria. Under the second hypothesis, there is a unique fundamental equilibrium and the regime switching is caused by changes in policy makers' preferences. The third hypothesis relaxes the rational expectations assumption. Under this hypothesis, indicators of the market fundamentals are not always precise. They are better indicators if cognitive biases are small and the rational expectations economy is a good approximation for reality. However, if market uncertainties enlarge the cognitive biases, the market-based indicators of fundamentals are no longer precise. In this case, they are not useful for CDS pricing. We find that the first two hypotheses are difficult to fit the data and the third hypothesis provides a good explanation for the sovereign CDS spread dynamics in our sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Blommestein, Hans J. & Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Qian, Zongxin, 2012. "Animal Spirits in the Euro Area Sovereign CDS Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 9092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9092
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=9092
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William Branch & George W. Evans, 2007. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 207-237, April.
    2. Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas, 2008. "Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1008-1021, June.
    3. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
    4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
    6. Roger E. A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 608-617, March.
    7. Carter Andrew V. & Steigerwald Douglas G., 2013. "Markov Regime-Switching Tests: Asymptotic Critical Values," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 25-34, July.
    8. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    10. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul, 2000. "Currency crises, sunspots and Markov-switching regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 327-350, April.
    11. De Grauwe, Paul, 2012. "Booms and busts in economic activity: A behavioral explanation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 484-501.
    12. Paul Grauwe, 2011. "Animal spirits and monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 423-457, June.
    13. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign "CDS" Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
    14. Oliver Hart & Luigi Zingales, 2011. "A New Capital Regulation for Large Financial Institutions," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 453-490.
    15. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
    16. Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2016. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 126-140.
    17. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
    18. Jin Seo Cho & Halbert White, 2007. "Testing for Regime Switching," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1671-1720, November.
    19. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2009. "Markov-switching models with endogenous explanatory variables II: A two-step MLE procedure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 46-55, January.
    20. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    21. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zaghini, Andrea, 2016. "Fragmentation and heterogeneity in the euro-area corporate bond market: Back to normal?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 51-61.
    2. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Serwa, Dobromił, 2016. "Market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 168-189.
    3. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Claeys, Peter & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2016. "How do experts forecast sovereign spreads?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 216-235.
    4. repec:mes:emfitr:v:52:y:2016:i:1:p:10-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Boris Blagov & Michael Funke & Richhild Moessner, 2015. "Modelling the time-variation in euro area lending spreads," BIS Working Papers 526, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Chiarella, Carl & ter Ellen, Saskia & He, Xue-Zhong & Wu, Eliza, 2015. "Fear or fundamentals? Heterogeneous beliefs in the European sovereign CDS market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 19-34.
    7. Hans J. Blommestein, 2012. "The Debate over Sovereign Risk, Safe Assets, and the Risk-Free Rate: What are the Implications for Sovereign Issuers?," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 55-70, September.
    8. Claeys, Peter & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Poplawski Ribeiro, Marcos, 2014. "How do financial institutions forecast sovereign spreads?," Working Paper Series 1750, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Animal spirit; Euro; sovereign CDS;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • P34 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9092. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.