IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jpolec/v103y1995i1p176-208.html

Credibility and Changes in Policy Regime

Author

Listed:
  • Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J

Abstract

This paper develops a rational expectations model of inflation in which the dynamics are driven by government expenditure and the effect of past inflation rates on the value of real taxes. Government spending follows an autoregressive process subject to discrete regime changes. The regimes are defined by whether the expenditure level is consistent with the rate of inflation targeted by the government. The agents do not observe the regime but construct probability inferences using data on inflation, interest rates, and spending. Credibility is quantified by the agents' inferred probability that the variables are in effect generated by the reformed regime. Copyright 1995 by University of Chicago Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 1995. "Credibility and Changes in Policy Regime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 176-208, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:103:y:1995:i:1:p:176-208
    DOI: 10.1086/261980
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261980
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. See http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JPE for details.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1086/261980?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1991. "Credibility and Stabilization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 837-850.
    2. Kiguel, Miguel A, 1989. "Budget Deficits, Stability, and the Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 148-157, May.
    3. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1984. "The Lucas Critique and the Volcker Deflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 211-215, May.
    4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    5. Blackburn, Keith & Christensen, Michael, 1989. "Monetary Policy and Policy Credibility: Theories and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-45, March.
    6. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    7. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    8. Barro, Robert J, 1970. "Inflation, the Payments Period, and the Demand for Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 1228-1263, Nov.-Dec..
    9. Fischer, Stanley, 1987. "The Israeli Stabilization Program, 1985-86," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 275-278, May.
    10. Michael Bruno & Stanley Fischer, 1990. "Seigniorage, Operating Rules, and the High Inflation Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(2), pages 353-374.
    11. Julio H. G. Olivera, 1967. "Money, prices and fiscal lags: a note on the dynamics of inflation," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 20(82), pages 258-267.
    12. David Backus & John Driffill, 1985. "Rational Expectations and Policy Credibility Following a Change in Regime," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(2), pages 211-221.
    13. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
    14. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "An Economic Theory of Monetary Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 24-58, February.
    15. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-350, June.
    16. Kaminsky, Graciela, 1993. "Is There a Peso Problem? Evidence from the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate, 1976-1987," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 450-472, June.
    17. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1986. "Stopping hyperinflations past and present," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 122(1), pages 1-47, March.
    18. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1977. "The Forward Exchange Rate, Expectations, and the Demand for Money: The German Hyperinflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 653-670, September.
    19. LaHaye, Laura, 1985. "Inflation and Currency Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(3), pages 537-560, June.
    20. Julio H. G. Olivera, 1967. "Money, prices and fiscal lags: a note on the dynamics of inflation," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 20(82), pages 258-267.
    21. Salemi, Michael K & Sargent, Thomas J, 1979. "The Demand for Money during Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations: II," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(3), pages 741-758, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 1999. "Government expenditure and the dynamics of high inflation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 333-358, April.
    2. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 1997. "Credibility and Signaling in Disinflation- a Cross Country Examination," Cahiers de recherche 9712, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    3. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777, June.
    4. Rudiger Dornbusch & Ferico Sturzenegger & Holger Wolf, 1990. "Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 1-84.
    5. Bordo, Michael D., 1986. "Explorations in monetary history: A survey of the literature," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 339-415, October.
    6. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2003. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-30, February.
    7. Abdul Qadir Patoli & Tayyab Zarif & Nadeem A. Syed, 2012. "Impact Of Inflation On Taxes In Pakistan: An Empirical Study Of 2000-2010 Period," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 8(2), pages 8-4.
    8. Chan Guk Huh & Kevin J. Lansing, 1998. "Federal Reserve credibility and inflation scares," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
    9. Huh, Chan G. & Lansing, Kevin J., 2000. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 51-86.
    10. Tourinho, Octávio A. F ., 1997. "The Demand and Supply of Money Under High Inflation: Brazil 1974-1994," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 17(2), November.
    11. Nikos Apergis & John Papanastasiou & Kostas Velentzas, 1997. "The credibility of policy announcements: Greek evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 699-705.
    12. Gérard Kremer & Ali Bouhaili, 1992. "Modèles monétaristes de l'hyperinflation," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(129), pages 113-136.
    13. Abdul Qadir Patoli & Tayyab Zarif & Nadeem A.Syed, 2012. "Impact Of Inflation On Taxes In Pakistan: An Empirical Study Of 2000-2010 Period," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 8(2), pages 31-41.
    14. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Rocha, Roberto de Rezende, 1991. "Stabilization programs in Eastern Europe : a comparative analysis of the Polish and Yugoslav programs of 1990," Policy Research Working Paper Series 732, The World Bank.
    15. Pekarski, Sergey, 2011. "Budget deficits and inflation feedback," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-11, February.
    16. Alexandre Sokic, 2007. "Monetary hyperinflations, speculative hyperinflations and modelling the use of money," Working Papers of BETA 2007-05, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    17. Patrick Artus, 1987. "Fixation de l'objectif monétaire et réputation de la Banque Centrale," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 38(4), pages 807-836.
    18. Zink, Helmut, 1993. "Stability problems in hyperinflation models," Discussion Papers, Series I 268, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
    19. Elmar Mertens, 2010. "Discreet Commitments and Discretion of Policymakers with Private Information," 2010 Meeting Papers 763, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Libich, Jan, 2006. "Central Bank Independence, Accountability and Transparency: Complements or Strategic Substitutes?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:103:y:1995:i:1:p:176-208. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journals Division (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JPE .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.