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Credibility and Changes in Policy Regime

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  • Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J

Abstract

This paper develops a rational expectations model of inflation in which the dynamics are driven by government expenditure and the effect of past inflation rates on the value of real taxes. Government spending follows an autoregressive process subject to discrete regime changes. The regimes are defined by whether the expenditure level is consistent with the rate of inflation targeted by the government. The agents do not observe the regime but construct probability inferences using data on inflation, interest rates, and spending. Credibility is quantified by the agents' inferred probability that the variables are in effect generated by the reformed regime. Copyright 1995 by University of Chicago Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 1995. "Credibility and Changes in Policy Regime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 176-208, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:103:y:1995:i:1:p:176-208
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kiguel, Miguel A, 1989. "Budget Deficits, Stability, and the Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 148-157, May.
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    5. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-350, June.
    6. Barro, Robert J, 1970. "Inflation, the Payments Period, and the Demand for Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 1228-1263, Nov.-Dec..
    7. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1977. "The Forward Exchange Rate, Expectations, and the Demand for Money: The German Hyperinflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 653-670, September.
    8. LaHaye, Laura, 1985. "Inflation and Currency Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(3), pages 537-560, June.
    9. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    10. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "An Economic Theory of Monetary Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 24-58, February.
    11. David Backus & John Driffill, 1985. "Rational Expectations and Policy Credibility Following a Change in Regime," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 211-221.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2003. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-30, February.
    2. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1998. "High real interest rates in the aftermath of disinflation: is it a lack of credibility?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 191-214, February.
    3. Huh, Chan G. & Lansing, Kevin J., 2000. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 51-86.
    4. Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2000. "Uncovering financial markets' beliefs about inflation targets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 483-512.
    5. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 1996. "Fiscal balance during inflation, disinflation, and inmigration: policy lessons," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34296, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. Sebastian Edwards & Raúl Susmel, 1999. "Contagion and Volatility in the 1990s," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 153, Universidad del CEMA.
    7. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 1999. "Government expenditure and the dynamics of high inflation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 333-358, April.
    8. Gomez-Puig, Marta & Montalvo, JoseG., 1997. "A new indicator to assess the credibility of the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1511-1535, August.
    9. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 1997. "Credibility and Signaling in Disinflation- a Cross Country Examination," Cahiers de recherche 9712, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    10. Frédérick Demers, 2003. "The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting," Staff Working Papers 03-32, Bank of Canada.
    11. Kathleen Dorsainvil, 2006. "Exchange Rate Unification Under Non-Credibility: The Haïtian Economy," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 12(2), pages 229-240, May.
    12. Winston R. MOORE, 2009. "Do International Monetary Fund Programs Impact On The Sacrifice Ratio?," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 47(2), pages 202-219.
    13. Boschen, John F. & Weise, Charles L., 2001. "The Ex Ante Credibility of Disinflation Policy and the Cost of Reducing Inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 323-347, July.
    14. Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Markov Regime Switching and Unit-Root Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 404-415, October.
    15. James D. Hamilton, 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," NBER Working Papers 21863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2018. "Disinflation and improved anchoring of long-term inflation expectations - The Icelandic experience," Economics wp77, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    17. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
    18. Davig, Troy, 2004. "Regime-switching debt and taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 837-859, May.
    19. Myriam Quispe-Agnoli, 2003. "Stabilization programs and policy credibility: Peru in the 1990s," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-40, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    20. repec:kap:iaecre:v:12:y:2006:i:2:p:229-240 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Markov Regime-Switching," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0040, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    22. Chan G. Huh & Kevin J. Lansing, 1998. "Federal Reserve credibility and inflation scares," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
    23. repec:eee:macchp:v2-163 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Edwards, Sebastian & Susmel, Raul, 2001. "Volatility dependence and contagion in emerging equity markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 505-532, December.

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