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Real effects of sovereign bond market spillovers in the euro area

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  • Gadatsch, Niklas

Abstract

This paper develops a small open economy model to investigate the impact of rising sovereign bond market spreads on the real economy. One key element of the model is a "sovereign risk channel" through which tensions in the sovereign bond market tend to spill over into private credit markets. The model is estimated with Bayesian methods and data for "high-spread" countries in the euro area. It turns out that spread shocks during the Euro crisis had a negative effect on real GDP growth in these countries, up to 0.8 percentage points (PP) Portugal and Ireland, 0.3 PP in Italy and 0.2 PP in Spain.

Suggested Citation

  • Gadatsch, Niklas, 2015. "Real effects of sovereign bond market spillovers in the euro area," Working Papers 01/2015, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:012015
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Small open economy; Business cycles; Sovereign risk premium; DSGE modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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