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Comparative Properties of Models of the UK Economy

Author

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  • Keith B. Church

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL)

  • Joanne E. Sault

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL)

  • Silvia Sgherri

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL)

  • Kenneth F. Wallis

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL)

Abstract

This article analyses the properties of five leading macroeconometric models of the UK economy, as revealed in four simulation experiments. These are carried out in a common operating environment that reflects the broad objectives of current policy - sound public finances and low inflation - by using feedback rules for income tax and interest rates. Developments in the structure of the models as revealed by the series of such exercises carried out during the lifetime of the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau (I983-99) are described. The development of the research methods through which models' properties were elucidated and analysed is also reviewed.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith B. Church & Joanne E. Sault & Silvia Sgherri & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Comparative Properties of Models of the UK Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 171(1), pages 106-122, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:171:y:2000:i:1:p:106-122
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    Cited by:

    1. K.F. Wallis, 1992. "On Macroeconomic Policy and Macroeconomic Modeling," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 92-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    2. Roberto Perotti, 2005. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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      • de Kam, C. A. & de Haan, J. & Giles, C. & Manresa, A. & Berenguer, E. & Calonge, S., 1996. "Who pays the taxes?," MPRA Paper 7146, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2004. "Comparing empirical models of the euro economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 735-758, September.
    7. Henry, Jérôme & Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2004. "The short-term impact of government budgets on prices: evidence from macroeconomic models," Working Paper Series 396, European Central Bank.
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    12. Arestis, Philip & McCauley, Kevin & Sawyer, Malcolm, 2001. "An Alternative Stability Pact for the European Union," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 113-130, January.
    13. Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Ágeir Daníelsson & Lúdvík Elíasson & Magnús F. Gudmundsson & Björn A. Hauksson & Ragnhildur Jónsdóttir & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2006. "QMM A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy," Economics wp32, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    15. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2000. "Fiscal policy rules in macroeconomic models: principles and practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-193, April.
    16. Pain, Nigel & Young, Garry, 2004. "The macroeconomic impact of UK withdrawal from the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 387-408, May.
    17. Patrizio Lecca & Peter G. McGregor & J. Kim Swales & Ya Ping Yin, 2014. "Balanced Budget Multipliers For Small Open Regions Within A Federal System: Evidence From The Scottish Variable Rate Of Income Tax," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 402-421, June.
    18. Bohdan Klos & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Tomasz Lyziak & Jan Przystupa & Ewa Wrobel, 2005. "Structural Econometric Models in Forecasting Inflation at the National Bank of Poland," NBP Working Papers 31, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    19. Kenneth F. Wallis & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, 2005. "Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 209-228.
    20. Patrizio Lecca & Peter McGregor & Kim Swales & Ya Ping Yin, 2010. "Inverted Haavelmo Effects in a General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Implementing the Scottish Variable Rate of Income Tax," Working Papers 1013, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    21. McAdam, Peter & Morgan, Julian, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism at the euro-area level: issues and results using structural macroeconomic models," Working Paper Series 0093, European Central Bank.
    22. Church, Keith B. & Mitchell, Peter R. & Smith, Peter N. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 1996. "Targeting inflation: Comparative control exercises on models of the UK economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 169-184, April.
    23. Keshab Raj Bhattarai & Jonathan Haughton & David Tuerck, 2015. "Fiscal Policy, Growth and Income Distribution in the UK and the US," EcoMod2015 8607, EcoMod.

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