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Comparative Properties of Models of the UK Economy

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  • K.B. Church
  • P.R. Mitchell
  • P.N. Smith
  • K.F. Wallis

Abstract

This article describes the current versions of six major macroeconometric models, and analyses their overall properties as revealed in standard simulation experiments. Particular attention is given to a policy issue of long-standing importance, namely the control of the size of the government budget deficit. Analysis of the impact on the government budget deficit of a range of policy instruments under a number of deficit-funding regimes shows that there is considerable disagreement between the models on the size and time-profile of these effects. Modelling of the exchange rate remains a key issue in assessing differences in model behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • K.B. Church & P.R. Mitchell & P.N. Smith & K.F. Wallis, 1993. "Comparative Properties of Models of the UK Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 145(1), pages 87-107, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:145:y:1993:i:1:p:87-107
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Perotti, 2005. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. J T Kneeshaw, 1995. "A survey of non-financial sector balance sheets in industialised countries: implications for the monetary policy transmission mechanism," BIS Working Papers 25, Bank for International Settlements.
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      • de Kam, C. A. & de Haan, J. & Giles, C. & Manresa, A. & Berenguer, E. & Calonge, S., 1996. "Who pays the taxes?," MPRA Paper 7146, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2004. "Comparing empirical models of the euro economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 735-758, September.
    5. den Butter, Frank A. G. & Morgan, Mary S., 1998. "What makes the models-policy interaction successful?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 443-475, July.
    6. Perez, Javier J. & Hiebert, Paul, 2004. "Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 1073-1089, December.
    7. Jérôme Henry & Pablo Hernández de Cos & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "The short-term impact of government budgets on prices: evidence from macroeconometrics models," Working Papers 0418, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    8. Simon Wren-Lewis, 2016. "Unravelling the New Classical Counter Revolution," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 20-35, January.
    9. J. 0. N. Perkins, 1991. "Possible Policies for Expansion," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 24(3), pages 4-15.
    10. Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Ágeir Daníelsson & Lúdvík Elíasson & Magnús F. Gudmundsson & Björn A. Hauksson & Ragnhildur Jónsdóttir & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2006. "QMM A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy," Economics wp32, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    12. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2000. "Fiscal policy rules in macroeconomic models: principles and practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-193, April.
    13. Pain, Nigel & Young, Garry, 2004. "The macroeconomic impact of UK withdrawal from the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 387-408, May.
    14. Patrizio Lecca & Peter G. McGregor & J. Kim Swales & Ya Ping Yin, 2014. "Balanced Budget Multipliers For Small Open Regions Within A Federal System: Evidence From The Scottish Variable Rate Of Income Tax," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 402-421, June.
    15. Bohdan Klos & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Tomasz Lyziak & Jan Przystupa & Ewa Wrobel, 2005. "Structural Econometric Models in Forecasting Inflation at the National Bank of Poland," NBP Working Papers 31, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    16. Patrizio Lecca & Peter McGregor & Kim Swales & Ya Ping Yin, 2010. "Inverted Haavelmo Effects in a General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Implementing the Scottish Variable Rate of Income Tax," Working Papers 1013, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    17. Church, Keith B. & Mitchell, Peter R. & Smith, Peter N. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 1996. "Targeting inflation: Comparative control exercises on models of the UK economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 169-184, April.
    18. K.F. Wallis, 1992. "On Macroeconomic Policy and Macroeconomic Modeling," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 92-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    19. Darby, Julia & Ireland, Jonathan & Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1998. "COMPACT: a rational expectations, intertemporal model of the United Kingdom economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-52, January.
    20. Henry, Jérôme & Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2004. "The short-term impact of government budgets on prices: evidence from macroeconomic models," Working Paper Series 396, European Central Bank.
    21. Arestis, Philip & McCauley, Kevin & Sawyer, Malcolm, 2001. "An Alternative Stability Pact for the European Union," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 113-130, January.
    22. Kenneth F. Wallis & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, 2005. "Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 209-228.
    23. McAdam, Peter & Morgan, Julian, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism at the euro-area level: issues and results using structural macroeconomic models," Working Paper Series 0093, European Central Bank.
    24. Keshab Raj Bhattarai & Jonathan Haughton & David Tuerck, 2015. "Fiscal Policy, Growth and Income Distribution in the UK and the US," EcoMod2015 8607, EcoMod.

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