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Optimal Mix Between Pay As You Go And Funding For Pension Liabilities In A Stochastic Framework

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  • Devolder, Pierre
  • Melis, Roberta

Abstract

This paper addresses the financing of public pensions in a stochastic environment. Traditionally, funded and unfunded pension schemes have been viewed as opposite solutions for the first pillar of public pensions. However, more recently countries as Sweden and Poland have explored mixed solutions that combine pay-as-you-go (PAYG) with funding mechanisms. The aims of this paper are to examine the rationality of such a combination using portfolio theory arguments and to find the optimal split of the contributions between the two systems. We first introduce the classical deterministic model leading to the well-known Samuelson–Aaron rule according to which diversification is never optimal. We then introduce different stochastic models in which the main processes (wage growth, population growth, financial rate of return) are random. In particular, we obtain conditions on parameters to justify diversification and explicit optimal sharing between PAYG and funding. We also introduce the possibility of investing in several financial assets and explore the impact of introducing systematic longevity risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Devolder, Pierre & Melis, Roberta, 2015. "Optimal Mix Between Pay As You Go And Funding For Pension Liabilities In A Stochastic Framework," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 551-575, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:astinb:v:45:y:2015:i:03:p:551-575_00
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matsen, Egil & Thogersen, Oystein, 2004. "Designing social security - a portfolio choice approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 883-904, August.
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    3. David K. Miles, 2000. "Funded and Unfunded Pension Schemes: Risk, Return and Welfare," CESifo Working Paper Series 239, CESifo.
    4. De Menil, Georges & Murtin, Fabrice & Sheshinski, Eytan, 2006. "Planning for the optimal mix of paygo tax and funded savings," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, March.
    5. Markus Knell, 2010. "The Optimal Mix Between Funded and Unfunded Pension Systems When People Care About Relative Consumption," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(308), pages 710-733, October.
    6. Dutta, Jayasri & Kapur, Sandeep & Orszag, J. Michael, 2000. "A portfolio approach to the optimal funding of pensions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 201-206, November.
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    1. T. Gudaitis & A. Fiori Maccioni, 2014. "Optimal Individual Choice of Contribution to Second Pillar Pension System in Lithuania," Working Paper CRENoS 201402, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    2. A. Fiori Maccioni & A. Bitinas, 2013. "Lithuanian pension system's reforms following demographic and social transitions," Working Paper CRENoS 201315, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    3. Boado-Penas, M. Carmen & Eisenberg, Julia & Korn, Ralf, 2021. "Transforming public pensions: A mixed scheme with a credit granted by the state," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 140-152.
    4. R. Melis & A. Trudda, 2014. "Mixed pension systems sustainability," Working Paper CRENoS 201413, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    5. Lin He & Zongxia Liang & Zhaojie Ren & Yilun Song, 2023. "Optimal Mix Among PAYGO, EET and Individual Savings," Papers 2302.09218, arXiv.org.
    6. Alonso-García, J. & Devolder, P., 2016. "Optimal mix between pay-as-you-go and funding for DC pension schemes in an overlapping generations model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 224-236.
    7. M. Carmen Boado-Penas & Julia Eisenberg & Ralf Korn, 2019. "Transforming public pensions: A mixed scheme with a credit granted by the state," Papers 1912.12329, arXiv.org.

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