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The Macroeconomic Effects of Lockdown policies

Author

Listed:
  • Aurélien Eyquem

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

A tractable incomplete-market model with unemployment, sticky prices, and a fiscal side is used to quantify the macroeconomic effects of lockdown policies and the miti-gating effects of raising government spending and implementing UI benefit extensions. We find that the effects of lockdown policies, although we are relatively conservative about the size of the lockdown, are huge: unemployment doubles on impact and al-most triples even for relatively short lockdown durations. Output falls dramatically and debt-output ratios increase by several tens of percentage points. In addition, the surge in unemployment risk triggers a rise in precautionary savings that make such shocks Keynesian supply shocks: aggregate demand falls by more than aggregate supply, and lockdown policies are deflationary. Unfortunately, we find that raising public spending and extending UI benefits stimulate aggregate demand or improve risk-sharing but has little effects on output and unemployment, although they do alleviate the welfare losses of lockdown policies for the households.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Aurélien Eyquem, 2020. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Lockdown policies," Post-Print halshs-02910892, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02910892
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    Cited by:

    1. Hinterlang, Natascha & Moyen, Stephane & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2023. "Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Yixiao Jiang & Kathryn D’Amato & Robert Winder & George Zestos, 2024. "Political Partisanship, COVID-19 Lockdown Policies, and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from U.S. Metropolitan Areas," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 52(2), pages 79-92, September.
    3. Luca Gori & Cristiana Mammana & Piero Manfredi & Elisabetta Michetti, 2022. "Economic development with deadly communicable diseases and public prevention," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 912-943, October.
    4. Stankov, Petar, 2025. "Politically optimal lockdowns with vaccine hesitancy: Theory and evidence from Switzerland," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 358-370.
    5. Hugo S. Gonçalves & Sérgio Moro, 2023. "On the economic impacts of COVID‐19: A text mining literature analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 375-394, February.
    6. Hwang, Tienyu, 2021. "Coronavirus lockdown and virus suppression: An international analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    7. Funashima, Yoshito & Hiraga, Kazuki, 2023. "Did the Japanese government’s travel subsidy increase the number of hotel guests and infection during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1005-1025.
    8. Ze Chen & Yuan Wang & Yanjun Guan & Michael Jie Guo & Rong Xu, 2023. "Long‐term effect of childhood pandemic experience on medical major choice: Evidence from the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in China," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 1120-1147, May.
    9. Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal & Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2024. "Pandemic panic? Effects of health system capacity on firm confidence during COVID-19," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Anasuya Haldar & Narayan Sethi, 2022. "The Economic Effects Of Covid-19 Mitigation Policies On Unemployment And Economic Policy Uncertainty," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 25(Special I), pages 61-84, March.
    11. Janiak, Alexandre & Machado, Caio & Turén, Javier, 2021. "Covid-19 contagion, economic activity and business reopening protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 264-284.
    12. Chen, Yutong & Debnath, Sisir & Sekhri, Sheetal & Sekhri, Vishal, 2023. "The impact of Covid-19 containment lockdowns on MSMEs in India and resilience of exporting firms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 320-341.
    13. Michael D. Noel, 2022. "Competitive survival in a devastated industry: Evidence from hotels during COVID‐19," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 3-24, February.
    14. Chen, Jingjing & Chen, Wei & Liu, Ernest & Luo, Jie & Song, Zheng, 2025. "The economic cost of locking down like China: Evidence from city-to-city truck flows," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    15. Mohimont, Jolan & de Sola Perea, Maite & Zachary, Marie-Denise, 2024. "Softening the blow: Job retention schemes in the pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    16. Crudu, Federico & Di Stefano, Roberta & Mellace, Giovanni & Tiezzi, Silvia, 2024. "The gray zone: How not imposing a strict lockdown at the beginning of a pandemic can cost many lives," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. Bo Xu & Jingjing Li & Yujun Wu, 2024. "External shock, stimulus policy and economic resilience of small and micro businesses: evidence from COVID-19 pandemic in China," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 585-613, June.
    18. Lan Wang & Xiao-Ping Chen & Jun Yin, 2024. "Leading via virtual communication: a longitudinal field experiment on work team creativity in an extreme context," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 195-231, March.
    19. Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Paula Barrios, 2022. "Subnational fiscal accounts under pressure: the effects of COVID-19 in a developing country," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 20052, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    20. Amores, Antonio F. & Christl, Michael & De Agostini, Paola & De Poli, Silvia & Maier, Sofia, 2025. "Limiting Prices or Transferring Money? An ex ante assessment of alternative measures to cope with the hike in energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    21. Julien Albertini & Xavier Fairise & Arthur Poirier & Anthony Terriau, 2022. "Short-Time Work Policies During the Covid-19 Pandemic," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 146, pages 123-172.
    22. Porto, Edoardo Di & Naticchioni, Paolo & Scrutinio, Vincenzo, 2022. "Lockdown, essential sectors, and Covid-19: Lessons from Italy," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    23. Becchetti, Leonardo & Beccari, Gabriele & Conzo, Gianluigi & Conzo, Pierluigi & De Santis, Davide & Salustri, Francesco, 2025. "The controversial environmental effects of COVID-19 lockdown on quality of air: evidence from Italian municipalities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    24. Zhao, Hongying & Liu, Luning, 2025. "The impact of public health policies on online food delivery services in China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    25. Andrei Nutas, 2021. "What Can the EU's Response to the COVID Crisis Tell us About our Values?," Journal for Social Media Inquiry, Editura Lumen, vol. 3(1), pages 32-49, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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