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Coronavirus lockdown and virus suppression: An international analysis

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  • Hwang, Tienyu

Abstract

This paper analyses the effect of lockdown against the coronavirus which is one of the fastest growing threats in the world. We focus on three categories of lockdown and group four continents, Asia, America, Europe, and Africa together to assess the effectiveness of such a measure to contain the virus. We also look at a number of variables linked to the spread of the virus to determine the factors affecting the growth of new confirmed cases. We show evidence that countries in Europe are more likely to impose a national lockdown than any other continent. For the empirical analysis, we undertake the cross-sectional regression model, logistic regression model and logistic growth curve as a method to apply the data collected over the period March to June 2020 as this is the data available at the time this paper is composed. The empirical results of this paper indicate that countries which impose the strictest form of lockdown will result in a reduction in growth of new confirmed cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Hwang, Tienyu, 2021. "Coronavirus lockdown and virus suppression: An international analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:170:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521002936
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120861
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of lockdown policies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    2. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/32r3ebde539odb82dkmep529vf is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5e33qpbdeh9pgbbfkkp2ddbtam is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Postnikov, Eugene B., 2020. "Estimation of COVID-19 dynamics “on a back-of-envelope”: Does the simplest SIR model provide quantitative parameters and predictions?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    6. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2020. "Stock markets’ reaction to COVID-19: Cases or fatalities?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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