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Transfer Problem Dynamics: Macroeconomics of the Franco-Prussian War Indemnity

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  • Devereux, Michael B.
  • Smith, Gregor W.

Abstract

We study the classic transfer problem of predicting the effects of an international transfer on the terms of trade and the current account. A two-country model with debt and capital allows for realistic features of historical transfers: they follow wartime increases in government spending and are financed partly by borrowing. The model is applied to the largest historical transfer, the Franco-Prussian War indemnity of 1871-1873. In these three years, France transferred to Germany an amount equal to 22 percent of a year¡¦s GDP. We investigate the ability of the model to account for the historical path of French GDP, terms of trade, net exports, and aggregate consumption. When combined with measured shocks to fiscal policy and productivity over the period, the model provides a very close fit to the historical sample path. This makes a strong case for the dynamic general equilibrium approach to studying the transfer problem. More generally, our results provide striking evidence of the importance of international capital markets in the nineteenth century.
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Suggested Citation

  • Devereux, Michael B. & Smith, Gregor W., 2005. "Transfer Problem Dynamics: Macroeconomics of the Franco-Prussian War Indemnity," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 273462, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:quedwp:273462
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.273462
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    Cited by:

    1. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2019. "Episodes of war and peace in an estimated open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 203-249.
    2. Lewis, Frank D., 2007. "Compensation and the abandoned property of the 1948 Palestinian refugees: Assessment and implications," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 523-537, October.
    3. Boileau, Martin & Normandin, Michel, 2008. "Dynamics of the current account and interest differentials," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 35-52, January.
    4. Bodenstein, Martin, 2013. "Equilibrium stability in open economy models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-13.
    5. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Gul ERTAN OZGUZER & Luca PENSIEROSO, 2009. "Worthy Transfers ? A Dynamic Analysis of Turkey’s Accession to the European Union," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2009029, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    7. Boileau, Martin & Normandin, Michel, 2008. "Closing international real business cycle models with restricted financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 733-756, September.
    8. Martin Boileau & Michel Normandin, 2004. "The Current Account and the Interest Differential in Canada," Cahiers de recherche 0424, CIRPEE.
    9. Devereux, Michael B. & Smith, Gregor W., 2007. "Transfer problem dynamics: Macroeconomics of the Franco-Prussian war indemnity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2375-2398, November.
    10. Thies Clifford F., 2024. "Reparations, Hyperinflation, Unemployment and the Rise of Adolph Hitler," Studia Historiae Oeconomicae, Sciendo, vol. 42(2), pages 75-94.
    11. Emil Verner & Győző Gyöngyösi, 2020. "Household Debt Revaluation and the Real Economy: Evidence from a Foreign Currency Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2667-2702, September.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Macroeconomic Effects of EU Transfers in New Member States," IMF Working Papers 2008/223, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Kaufmann, Christoph & Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Hauptmeier, Sebastian, 2023. "Macroeconomic stabilisation properties of a euro area unemployment insurance scheme," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    14. Johri, Alok & Letendre, Marc-André & Luo, Daqing, 2011. "Organizational capital and the international co-movement of investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 511-523.
    15. Trionfetti, Federico, 2018. "Firm heterogeneity, comparative advantage and the transfer problem," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 246-258.
    16. Emek Karaca & Mustafa Tugan, 2017. "Aggregate Dynamics after a Shock to Monetary Policy in Developing Countries," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 261-296, February.
    17. Pascal Towbin, 2013. "Financial Integration And External Sustainability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 375-395, October.
    18. Gül Ertan Özgüzer & Luca Pensieroso, 2013. "An analysis of Turkey's accession to the European Union," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1380-1405, November.
    19. Ram Sewak Dubey & Minwook Kang, 2019. "Transfer paradox in a stable equilibrium," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 7(2), pages 259-269, December.
    20. Gyöngyösi, Győző & Rariga, Judit & Verner, Emil, 2021. "The anatomy of consumption in a household foreign currency debt crisis," SAFE Working Paper Series 332, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    21. Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem, 2014. "War, Taxes and Trade," Working Papers 2014-29, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    22. Bodenstein, Martin, 2011. "Closing large open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 160-177, July.
    23. Kang, Minwook & Ye, Lei Sandy, 2016. "Advantageous redistribution with three smooth CES utility functions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 171-180.
    24. Dong, Baomin & Guo, Yibei, 2018. "The impact of the first Sino-Japanese war indemnity: Transfer problem reexamined," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 15-26.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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