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Worthy Transfers ? A Dynamic Analysis of Turkey’s Accession to the European Union

  • Gul ERTAN OZGUZER

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

  • Luca PENSIEROSO

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) FNRS)

In this paper, we build a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model to study whether European citizens would benefit from the eventual accession of Turkey to the European Union. The results of the simulations show that Turkey's accession to the European Union is welfare enhancing for Europeans, provided that Turkish total factor productivity (TFP) increases sufficiently after enlargement. In the model with no capital mobility, the Europeans are better off it the Turkish TFP increase bridges more than 31% of the initial TFP gap between Turkey and the European Union. That figure becomes 45% when capital mobility is introduced.

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) with number 2009029.

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Length: 24
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2009029
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  1. Moomaw, Ronald L. & Yang, Euy-Seok, 2004. "Total factor productivity and economic freedom implications for EU enlargement," ZEI Working Papers B 02-2004, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
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  11. Arjan M. Lejour & Ruud A. de Mooij, 2004. "Turkish Delight – Does Turkey’s accession to the EU bring economic benefits?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1183, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Doris Ritzberger-Grunwald & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2008. "Growth, convergence and EU membership," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(5), pages 643-656.
  13. Gül, ERTAN ÖZGÜZER, 2007. "May Free Capital mobility before accession be unfavorable for admission to the EU ?," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007035, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  14. Dawson, John W, 1998. "Institutions, Investment, and Growth: New Cross-Country and Panel Data Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(4), pages 603-19, October.
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