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Global current account imbalances and exchange rate adjustment: the role of oil suppliers

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  • Oberpriller, Christian M.

Abstract

The present paper extends the Obstfeld and Rogoff (2005) framework of current account imbalances by the oil exporting countries as a fourth region. It sets the stage for a variety of analysis that can be conducted within a four-region-setting that accounts for the importance of OPEC as a major current account surplus provider in the process of narrowing global current account imbalances. We find that including the oil exporting countries as an additional region consisting of OPEC and Russia lowers the adjustment effects predicted by Obstfeld and Rogoff. Depending on different assumptions on how global imbalances might be eliminated, our model predicts a real dollar depreciation in the range of 29.9 to 52.6 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Oberpriller, Christian M., 2007. "Global current account imbalances and exchange rate adjustment: the role of oil suppliers," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 442, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwasw:442
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    8. Oberpriller, Christian M., 2007. "Exchange rates and global imbalances: the importance of asset valuation effects and interest rate changes," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 443, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
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    1. Oberpriller, Christian M., 2007. "Exchange rates and global imbalances: the importance of asset valuation effects and interest rate changes," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 443, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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